“This war couldn’t have come at a worse time, and not a worse place.”

Arif Husain, the economic director of the World Food Program (WFP), has a clear message for people who think the war in Ukraine is not their problem. That message reads: ‘It is indeed your problem.’

The WFP, the organization that was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020, is the part of the United Nations that provides food to approximately 125 million of the world’s poorest people every day. And precisely when it comes to food, Husain says, there are few countries between which a war would turn out more disastrous than a war between Russia and Ukraine. Together, those two countries account for about 30 percent of global wheat exports (a basic ingredient for bread), 32 percent of total barley exports (a major source of livestock feed), 17 percent of all corn exports and about 75 percent of all sunflower oil. . In total, at least 12 percent of all calories traded in the world come from the Black Sea region.

Or more specifically: originated, because since the Russian invasion started, the countries hardly export any more nutrients.

Food prices were already high before the invasion

The consequences for the rest of the world are enormous, says Husain. Since the invasion began, the price of wheat has increased by more than 20 percent, barley by about a third, and the price of fertilizers, of which Russia is also the world’s largest exporter, by nearly 40 percent. In the long run, this will also have consequences for maize and soy prices, because those two crops grow mainly thanks to fertilizer. Soybeans are in turn used for animal feed, which in the long run will also increase meat prices, and so on.

“But the big difference with previous crises is that this time food prices were already the highest in ten years before the war broke out,” says Husain. Just as fuel prices were at their highest level in 7 years, many parts of the world were battling massive inflation rates and millions of incomes had just been lost due to the coronavirus pandemic. And even before the war in Ukraine broke out, the numbers of people suffering from hunger were historically high. In other words, this war couldn’t have come at a worse time.’

For tens of millions of people worldwide on the brink of starvation, the Russian invasion therefore represents the final push, says Husain. ‘Just look at my own organization. Since December 2019, our costs have increased by 44 percent, meaning that with the same resources we can feed nearly four million less people per day, while at the same time adding millions of people with hunger.”

For example, Oxfam Novib warned last Wednesday that 28 million people in East Africa alone will have to deal with severe hunger in the short term, partly because Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are already struggling with the worst drought in 40 years – countries that are also suffering for more than 90 percent of their wheat imports depend on Russia and Ukraine. Human Rights Watch also sounded the alarm this week, partly because the war in Ukraine will significantly worsen the already existing famines in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Ethiopia, Afghanistan and South Sudan.

Food crisis: more refugees

In 2007 and 2008, food shortages sparked riots in more than 40 countries. “Remember, the Arab Spring started in 2011 with one man in Tunisia who set himself on fire because he could no longer bear his costs. The ingredients for something similar are now available in many countries. There is a good chance that unstable governments will collapse in the short term and new refugee flows will start.

‘That is why the consequences of the current food crisis for the West will not only be more expensive bread. No, the actual costs will be much higher. Germany alone has spent 125 billion euros because of the migratory flow that started in Syria after the war.’

We must therefore continue to give generously to minimize world hunger, Husain says, while recognizing that the world has become far too dependent on a small group of countries for food. Three countries currently own 68 percent of all wheat stocks. Two countries control 82 percent of all corn stocks. And only four countries own 93 percent of soybean inventories.

“No investor would spread their risk so poorly, but when it comes to our food, we think it’s normal.”

Husain also pleads for more transparency about the setting of food prices on the financial markets in order to become less dependent on speculators. Just a few days after the Russian invasion, food prices in certain financial markets were already 50 percent higher, while at that time nothing had changed in terms of supply.

Filled grain buffers

Traders assume, among other things, that the next Ukrainian harvest is also doomed to failure, because a significant part of the agricultural area is now a war zone and many farmers are fleeing their land or fighting at the front.

However, a report from Wageningen University shows that there will be no shortage of food in the world for the next six months. The harvests were fine last year, the global grain buffers are adequate, the main problem is the price, which has risen to such an extent that governments of poor countries can no longer afford it.

“You cannot therefore say that current food prices are the result of sheer bad luck, because the climate crisis just happens to coincide with a pandemic and a possible third world war,” says Husain. ‘You can only say that there is something structurally wrong with our food system and we have ignored the signals about it for far too long. That’s why it’s so important that we really act this time. If we don’t address our problems now, things will get much worse in the future. And not just in poor countries, but everywhere. Also with you.’