After the internal earthquake caused in the party by the elections in Castilla y León, which even ended up engulfing the leader himself, the PP has launched its second ordago of the year at the polls, this time in Andalusia. The Chairman of the Board, Juanma Moreno, has advanced to June 19 the regional elections, scheduled for December, in search of a more stable majority, after four years of coalition government with Ciudadanos. However, the threat that the popular ones are once again in the hands of the extreme right, to which they have already given access to the Executive of Castilla y León, looms again over the formation that he now directs Alberto Nunez Feijoo.
The average of all the polls published since last November certifies this danger for the PP, which, although it would manage to win the elections and take away from the PSOE the condition of most voted force, would also see how the extreme right of Vox would sign a new electoral escalation, in this case in the community where it premiered in the Spanish institutions in 2018. Those elections were won by the socialists, but the alliance of PP and Cs ended four decades of PSOE hegemony in the community.
Three weeks before the beginning of the electoral campaign, the PP of Juanma Moreno maintains a comfortable lead and heads the forecasts with 34.6% of the votes (6 tenths more than two weeks ago) and 8.2 points ahead of the PSOE (four tenths less than 15 days ago). The former mayor of Seville John Swords it would remain with 26.4% of the votes (one point more than two weeks ago). The popular ones would grow 14 points compared to the regional ones of 2018, while the socialists, who then concurred with susana diaz as headliners, they would drop 1.5 points.
The ultra-rightists of vox they would jump to third position with 17.1% of the votes, 6 points more than in the previous elections, in an escalation from which they would come out badly again citizens. The orange party would chain its umpteenth electoral debacle and would drop 14 points compared to 2018, going from 18.3% to 4.1% of the ballots. Both formations have dropped half a point in the last two weeks.
In the alternative left to the PSOE, to the rupture between Can Y Forward Andalusiathe brand that in the last elections joined the purple formation, has added the upheaval caused by the agreement to form the coalition Through Andalusia (in which coexist, among other forces, Podemos, IU and Más País). For Andalusia it stands at 8.9% of the votes and Adelante Andalucía, at 4%, 12 points less four years ago.
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The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serrano, researcher at the IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute) of the UOC, correspond to the weighted average of the main published surveys. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, based on the size of the sample (the larger, the greater the value) and the date of the field work (the more recent, the more significant).
Converting these percentages into seats, and compared to the estimates of two weeks ago, Moreno remains 10 seats short of the absolute majority, which in the Andalusian Parliament is set at 55 deputies. The PP repeated with 45 seats (19 more than in the last elections), while the PSOE he has won a deputy for 15 days and stands at 33 parliamentarians (the same as in the 2018 elections). vox remains in the 20 representatives (8 more than in the previous elections). Can remains with 8 deputies after snatching one Forward Andalusia, which despite this would only retain 2 of the 17 parliamentarians. achieved in 2018. The red lantern would be citizenswhich in the last two weeks has fallen one more seat and would only keep 1 of the 21 that it won four years ago.