Five months after general elections of July 23, the year that has changed the regional and municipal political map, but not the national one, faces its final stretch with the PP in its best demographic moment in a long time and the left still digesting the effects of the post-election negotiations. The concessions of the PSOE to ERC and Junts to form a Government, the rupture between Sumar and Podemos and the influence of Vox in the PP strategy marked the last death rattles of a 2023 that ended with the sum of the right above the absolute majority, the left on the decline and the Catalan and Basque struggles at their peak.
The average of all surveys on general elections published since the last elections keep the PP in first position with an advantage over the PSOE of 6.3 points. Before sealing the agreements with the independentists, amnesty law Included, that difference was 2.4 points, which means that in two months the gap has increased four points, and five since the elections, when Feijóo defeated Sánchez by only 1.3 points.
Right now, the PP would obtain the 36.3% of the votes and Sánchez would achieve the 30% of the votes. Compared to before the investiture, the Popular Party has gained two points, the same as the Socialists have lost. And since the polls, the growth of the PP is 3.3 points and the decline of the PSOE is 1.7 points. Converting that average into seats, the PP would today achieve 151 deputies (eight more than in the elections) and the PSOE would be left with 115 (six less than in the elections).
The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serranoresearcher at the IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute) of the UOC, correspond to the Weighted average of the main published polls. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, depending on the sample size (the larger, the greater the value) and the date of field work (the more recent, the more significant). It must be taken into account that some surveys, such as those of the CIS, only offer vote estimatesbut not seats, which influences the averages of each variable.
The internal convulsions in Vox and Add They are weakening their electoral expectations at the beginning of 2024 that will also examine the state of health of their brands at the polls. The extreme right of Santiago Abascal maintains a slight advantage of one tenth and one seat over the coalition of Yolanda Diaz, although both would lose steam compared to the July elections. Vox would get 11.2% of the votes and 28 deputies, one point and five deputies less than at the polls. Despite the decline, the ultras would maintain their status as the third political force in Congress because Sumar would also decline strongly, to 11.1% of the ballots and 27 parliamentariansone point and four seats less than in the elections.
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That appointment with the polls left the battle between ERC and Junts tied, although with a three-tenth advantage of the Republicans in votes. Since then, the equality between both formations has become even more extreme, with a single tenth difference in favor of Esquerra, but each maintaining the 7 seats that they harvested five months ago. Regarding the Basque pulse between EH Bildu and the PNVthe two parties would practically repeat their results from July with one seat ahead for the nationalist left.
These averages would allow Feijóo to reach Moncloa only with the support of Vox, since both forces would add 179 seats, nine more than at the polls, seven more than before the investiture and three above the absolute majority. For his part, the sum of Sánchez’s partners would be 142 seatsten less than in the elections and eight less than before the re-election of the PSOE leader.