Spain enters another winter with temperatures above the usual | The advance of the climate crisis sows the ground for winters that are less and less cold but with more risk of extreme weather events
The climate crisis continues to transform Spanish winters. This year, according to the seasonal forecast for the coming months, the country is facing the umpteenth winter of warmer temperatures than usual. This does not mean that it will be hot at Christmas. But the typical cold of these months will give way to more moderate temperatures. The other side of the coin of this phenomenon that causes an anomalous increase in winter thermometers is that it also sows the ground for a season with increased risk of extreme weather events.
This year’s forecast illustrates, once again, the Change of trend that has triggered global warming and that in the coming decades could transform the climate as we know it. An analysis carried out by the meteorology team of the time isfor example, explains that the advance of the climate crisis will create warmer winters, with more days of temperatures higher than normal for the season and with minimums that are far from the typical values for this season. In 2050, winters in Madrid and Barcelona could leave around 10 warmer days more than usual with respect to the usual values for this time of year.
In a world where the average global temperature has already risen by one degree in the last century, and where thermometers could rise two more degrees in just a few decades, Spain is in one of the epicenters of global warming. And this not only implies that, little by little, the heat will transform all the seasons of the year (starting with the summers, where extreme heat causes more and more damage). “Climate change also creates a scenario where the perfect ingredients come together for the extreme weather events more easily,” says Mario Picazometeorologist from the eltiempo.es team and professor of meteorology and climate change at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA).
Will there be another Philomena?
In January 2021, Spain experienced a storm that turned on red warnings in a large part of the country, left unprecedented snowfall at low levels and caused one of the most intense cold waves in recent years. Now that winter is back, many wonder if another storm of these characteristics could occur this season. “The probability that another will form Philomena It is, statistically speaking, unlikely. But if it occurs, the only way to know when it would affect us is by analyzing the meteorological data from the previous days,” says Picazo. Last year, in fact, the alert for the arrival of this storm occurred just a week before of its beginning Until then, Filomena did not appear in any seasonal forecast.
Everything points to that the progress of the climate crisis will create winters where, on the one hand, the global increase in temperatures will soften the cold of the season and, on the other, the heat that permeates the atmosphere will unleash Increasingly intense and frequent extreme weather events. According to a study by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, the number of storms, storms and extreme floods could multiply by three in the next decades. In areas such as the Mediterranean, there is also concern that the torrential rains typical of autumn and winter extend beyond the usual seasons. Starting in 2050, it is estimated that extreme weather events that used to occur once every 100 years will begin to occur every 30 years and will increase in frequency as the century progresses.