Although, a year ago, the economic recession and although the Threat of a decline in consumer confidence continues to harass merchants, the sector ends triumphantly Christmas campaign and is preparing for sales in which everything seems to be going well. Not only to companies, which – at least in Catalonia– they rub their hands hearing that the temperatures are finally really dropping, the last push to a textile industry that has just recovered, just barely, its pre-covid sales volume; also to the client, because everything indicates that The ‘stock’ accumulated as a result of another rather summery autumn will favor large discounts. All this, furthermore, supported by a ‘D-day’ that falls on a Sunday.
Without going any further, the delegate in Catalonia of the Spanish Association of Shopping Centers and old director of La Maquinista, Victor Garcia Soriano, remember that the historical record of influx in this shopping center was reached on a Saturday of winter sales. “Logic says that it would have to be a very good day,” reflects this manager of Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield.
The truth is that many companies have had their promotions active for days, but the 7th is the one that brings great figures from the industry to the party (such as The English Court or the stores Inditex) and what continues to be, in the collective imagination, the official start day. The fact that it falls on a Sunday has, however, some counterpart: “When the sales fall on the weekend, people tend to put a lot of effort into the first few days, but then, in a week or two, they are over,” explains Garcia Soriano. that, be that as it may, expects a slightly higher level of sales than last yearin line with what has already happened during Christmas.
According to the data managed by the Catalan Fashion Cluster (MODACC), this sector ends 2023 with a turnover 5% higher than the previous year – largely motivated by the increase in product prices – but also around 2% more sales in units. That is In 2023, the business volume that this industry had before the arrival of the pandemic would have been recovered.
“The issue is that this has gone from better to worse and in the last part of the year, especially in September and October, it has cost a lot,” explains the executive director of this organization, David García Uslé. “It is true that large distributors are making efforts to better manage stocks, but this has not been a good autumn and we reach winter with plenty of product at the point of sale,” explains this spokesperson. This, which at first sounds like bad news for business, is an “excellent sign” For the consumer: the discounts – García Uslé predicts – will be aggressive.
A “very good” campaign
“The discount depends a lot on the amount of ‘stock’ you have of that item, because The goal of all brands is to reach the end of the season with as little stock as possible.: In the end, they all measure their success with the percentage of items sold within the season; If you are low in that percentage, you need to improve your ratio and this improvement comes by offering more discount,” contextualizes the director of MODACC.
Thus, as a whole, this entity also expects that the discounts will work very well. It won’t even matter that during Christmas people have already bought a lot: in December they buy gifts and In January you are looking for a wardrobe change for yourself or to prepare yourself for the cold. “There will be ‘stock’ and it is a good campaign to try to resupply,” summarizes García Uslé, who celebrates this forecast taking into account that “The discount is always an opportunity for billing and interaction with the consumer”.
Also in The English Court They count on it. “It will be a very good campaign, because we have a lot of stock of tailoring and winter clothing“The fall has been very warm and, although everything has been reactivated a little during Christmas, we still have a lot of product,” say sources from these department stores. “It also influences that temperatures are going to plummet, and that will benefit us,” they add, before extending this list of promising factors with the start on Sunday: their audience – these same sources highlight – already counts on the fact that they are open on a Sunday. , because they have been acting this way all season, so they have no doubt that he will attend the appointment. “We are convinced that it will work,” they conclude.
Dark clouds and fears of small businesses
The only fear that the sector confesses is that this will be the last party before the definitive fall in consumption. “What the macroeconomic forecasts is that consumer confidence falls and that 2024 is expected to be a tougher year for the consumption of fashion and other items”, confesses the executive director of MODACC. On the one hand, he reassures him that this is not the first time these drums have sounded and that, despite that, 2023 has ended up being a good year. On the other hand, he is concerned that many merchants are already showing doubts when it comes to buying clothes for the winter season 2024.
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In fact, the proximity trade He doesn’t even see it as clear that this first consumer event of the year is going so well. From Pimec Comerç They remember that before the holidays began, almost 60% of their associates did not have a clear forecast of what would happen in December and January. “There are favorable factors and braking factors,” summarizes the president of this faction of the Catalan employers’ association of small and medium-sized businesses, Antonio Torres. “The increase in the price of electricity, transportation, food and mortgages means that families have less purchasing power,” he recalls, “but it is true that the weather until now has not been much like autumn-winter, with which the offers will be good“. “There are many conditions,” concludes this spokesperson, who is clear that, far from the unanimous feeling of large businesses, the behavior of sales during Christmas in small businesses has depended a lot on the area. It is To say, not everything has gone well.
“Many have not yet reached pre-pandemic levels,” they agree from the Spanish Trade Confederation (CEC), an association that takes the opportunity to denounce the added difficulty presented by the rules of the game that currently govern sales for small businesses. “The sales are maintained by tradition, but the lack of regulation from the liberalization of periods in 2012 means that consumer interest has been lost and that it has become another period of discounts within the spiral of promotions that are chained throughout the year,” they conclude.