The League’s Regular Series culminates in three rounds of matches played on the weekend and Tuesday.
The tension gets even tighter, because the biggest stakes are still on the table.
The teams have different starting points for the chalk lines depending on the remaining number of matches (1–3), the opponents, the condition of the day and the injury situation.
When you use these criteria to predict the competition for the victory of the regular season, which has become a mutual rivalry between the people of Tampere, the conclusion is clear: Tappara will take it.
If Ilves were to win the Tampere Derby today in regular time, it would rise to even points and the three-point wins would also be equal. However, Tappara would remain in first place based on goal difference – unless Ilves won by at least five goals.
If it did such a hard trick, its seams would strengthen from a thin sieve to some kind of straw.
In that case, Tappara would have to take more points from their remaining matches (Kärpät at home, HPK away) than Ilves would get from their only match, which they will play in the final round on Tuesday in Turku. Or the same amount, but with a better goal difference.
As the shaky pattern suggests, Ilves’ regular season win is behind too many twists and turns.
Even two points are enough for Tappara today to seal their third consecutive regular season title.
The race for home advantage in the quarterfinals is between Kärppi (103 points), Jukuri (101), Pelicans (100) and HIFK (99), who are ranked 3-6.
These also form two playoff pairs.
But which teams will go head-to-head and which two will get the home advantage?
The group is even tighter than the scores indicate, as the chasers Pelicans and HIFK have one more match left than Kärpi and Jukurei, who are still in the lead.
The situation is also smoothed out by the fact that the programs coming from behind are more popular.
Kärpät will also face Tappara and Jukurit, both away.
There won’t be any easy points, although the rest today and the match against Tappara right after the local twist on Saturday might give the Oulu team a small advantage.
Jukurit will first challenge the home team KalPa in Kuopio and then on Tuesday at home with Kärppie, they will see who is who.
On Mikkeli’s evening, one or even both lose points, which gives the chasers a chance to overtake.
The Pelicans’ program – JYP (k), KooKoo (v), SaiPa (k) – is such that you can expect 6–9 points for it without much fuss.
Even with six, it would be strong, because its number of three-point wins is the second best of the quartet: Jukurit 30, Pelicans 28, Kärpät 27, HIFK 25.
HIFK’s program – TPS (k), Sport (v), KalPa (k) – does not directly push the corresponding point pot as Pelicans. It is still cheaper than Kärpi and Jukurei.
The whole foursome is going to a really bad bunch.
The final order is almost impossible to guess – at least correctly – but Pelicans and Kärpät have the strongest home advantage.
Sport (58 matches, 80 points), KooKoo (59, 79), TPS (57, 79) and Ässät (58, 78) are fighting for the biggest things.
The best two will continue in the first round of the playoffs and the season of the other two will end harshly in the regular season.
Sport has the most supportive position in Kymppikerho – in other ways than based on ranking and points.
In tied points, the order is determined by three-point wins before the goal difference, and in those the team is number one in the comparison group: Sport 20, KooKoo 17, TPS 16, Ässät 18.
Sport also excels in fitness with its six-game point streak, and it gets to play both of its games in front of its loud home crowd.
Even HIFK won’t have an easy time in Vaasa, and in the deciding match against Ässi on Super Tuesday, the importance of home advantage is great.
KooKoo’s situation is tough, with only Saturday’s challenging home game against the Pelicans left.
TPS also has a mountain to climb.
Its program is of such a class – HIFK (v), Lukko (v), Ilves (k) – that without a big posture movement, even one point is tight.
This could open the possibility for Ässi to defect past both TPS and KooKoo.
For Pada, even a home win over JYP on Saturday might be enough for a playoff spot, and there would still be a spot for the final round duel in Vaasa.
It’s so consistent that it’s more a guess than an estimate, but let’s bet that Sport and Ässien play in the players here.