The Pelicans have lost only one game at home in the playoffs this season.
Pelicans and Tappara will meet for the second time today, Friday, in the final series. Mika Kylmäniemi / AOP
The most interesting game of the day
The league finals continue on Friday in Lahti with the Pelicans’ first home game. Tappara won the opening match at home 5–1.
The readings do not fully correspond to the strength ratios of the teams in that game, although Tappara also clearly led the expected goals by 3.7–1.7. The Pelicans suffered a weak moment at the end of the second period after Tappara scored three goals in three minutes. Once again, Tappara’s winning streak started from a more or less questionably obtained superiority game.
In the field game, with their activity and skating power, Pelicans were able to challenge Tapparaa surprisingly well until the end of the second period. Of course, in the opening match, that was to some extent expected. At home, the Pelicans have been a very difficult opposition in the playoffs so far thanks to their active way of playing. It has already won six of its seven home matches directly in regular time.
The home advantage (and especially its referee element) is emphasized in this final series because Tappara’s superiority game has been murderously effective – and there is no reason to expect it to weaken, at least without injuries to key players. Tappara’s overall playoff percentage is currently 37.14% (Pelicans 23.81%).
It is also worth noting that Tappara’s underpowered playing has also been extremely good throughout the spring; the team has scored only one goal during the opponent’s 23 superiority (av percentage 95.65%). Here again, the Pelicans give an equalizer to the people of Tampere with their reading of 82.61%.
As for the formations, the teams today are otherwise exactly the same as in the opening match, except that Tappara changes his foursome Juuso Ikonen Patrik Virtaan. At least that’s not a disadvantage for Kirvesrinnoi.
In terms of power relations, despite the home advantage of the Pelicans, I consider Tapparaa to be a slightly bigger favorite than Veikkaus’ estimates (actual playing time coefficient scale 3.50/3.60/2.00). 2.00 is pretty close to playable.
In terms of betting, the best offer of the match can be found on the side of the number of goals. In my opinion, Veikkaus has already exaggerated the likely low-goal nature of the match by setting 4.0 goals as the main goal line for the actual playing time. The match has a certain potential for a bit of an upset, and both coaches will also bravely take the goalkeeper out in a possible losing situation at the end. The most palatable betting idea is the 1.67 multiplier offered for over 4.0 goals.
The second final of the league starts at 18:30.
The best betting tip of the day
Friday’s best long-term search can be found in the La Liga match between Espanyol and Cadiz. In my opinion, Veikkaus puts the number of goals in this match a bit on the low side by offering the market’s highest odds of 1.84 for more than 2.0 goals.
The home team Espanyol has been consistently quite generous in their last matches. At least three goals have been scored in its seven previous matches. At home, Espanyol has played only three (out of fourteen) such matches in the whole season where they would have scored less than two goals.
Of course, Cadiz is not as big a team as Espanyol, and the importance of the match (both in the relegation battle) basically weighs down the number of goals. Still, I see the setup of the match in such a way that a draw is not acceptable for Espanyol and the team will at some point have to go for the winning goal even with a little risk.
This clearly increases the goal expectation compared to a relegation battle match, where one point would be a good catch for both teams.
Espanyol–Cadiz starts at 22:00. The teams’ first mutual match of the season ended 2–2 in Cadiz in October (expected goal score 1.3–1.3).
The best case in hockey is the final victory of the NY Islanders over Carolina with odds of 1.83. Even though Teuvo Teräväinen’s season hasn’t been particularly successful, Carolina, which is suffering from injuries at the forward end, is inevitably starting to have a shortage of solvers after Teräväinen’s fall. The third game – the first at home – is where the blow is for the Islanders in this series.
NY Islanders–Carolina kicks off at 2:00.
As an early bet on the coupon, you can take the KPV–TPS match of Ykkönen with under 2.5 goals under a significant risk of relegation. Veikkaus’ 1.86 is an offer higher than the general market level by more than a tenth, and the market, at least on Friday morning, is not moving in the direction of the under here – rather the opposite.
Today’s games: KPV – TPS, under 2.5 goals, odds 1.86.
Total balance of the day’s games for the year: 42/75/94%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.