“They are failing in the analysis of reality”

No one in Ferraz or in the core of government power was capable of intuiting the political earthquake that 28M has brought to fruition

The war of figures that has accompanied the regional and municipal elections of 28M has revealed the deep deficit of Moncloa and Ferraz in their Knowledge of Spanish society and the lack of expertise of his electoral analysis. The numbers that they have handled, once again, were wrong. The largest center of power in Spain, which is the Presidency of the Government, with all the data at its disposal on what the Spanish think, has shown that it is not capable of processing them or that if it does, it cannot understand them. “They are failing in the analysis of reality,” say party sources.

The Government and the PSOE believed until Sunday itself, without any doubt, that they were going to be at least one point ahead of the PP in the municipal elections, when it was already circulating that the GAD3 survey that would be disseminated at the close of the colleges, with an accumulated of the last 10 days, predicted that the popular would win by a million votes -there have been 800,000- and that they would lose several autonomies, as happened. The PSOE polls never saw that. When the first doubts arose on Saturday, they continued to maintain their prediction.

Even on Sunday, a few hours before the end of the vote, the nucleus of socialist power could not imagine that the elections could go wrong. It is not that they transferred it to journalists, in an attempt to still sell a victorious story, it is that they defended it to party members who began to call to ask. Socialist sources also recall that the rulings on the electoral results have been constant -Andalusia (on both occasions since 2018), Madrid, Castilla y León- and that in this regard nothing has changed with the departure of Iván Redondo. “They had to be thrown out,” says an experienced former party manager. “If the Government does not have the data, then who”.

A criticism that extends to Ferraz, both Organization and Electoral Action. At all times it was maintained that only La Rioja was at risk, and that in the rest of the tighter autonomies -the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands and Aragon- they were also ahead and there was a margin. It is true that the same security was transmitted in the territories. The tracking was stable and gave options to win. Only on Friday in some places an increase in the vote for the PP began to be seen due to cases of electoral fraud or the involvement of the number two in Andalusia in an attempted kidnapping. In Genoa the euphoria was triggered at the end of the campaign. But the Socialists did not seem concerned. That is why the blow on election night was so hard. So much so that as a result of 28M Pedro Sánchez decided within hours to call early elections on July 23.

The criticism reaches “lack of campaign direction” in Ferraz. For decisions such as “leaving Reyes Maroto alone in the Madrid City Council” and “not offering her any coverage”, despite the fact that her candidacy was a decision of the Prime Minister. Or the nationalization of the political debate with the ultra-exposure Pedro Sánchez and the announcements of new measures, leaving the least impressive for last. But, above all, because “there was no reaction” or it was late to the inclusion of ETA members on the Bildu lists or the vote-by-mail scandal. All of this contributed to making presidents and mayors more difficult to talk about their own issues,

Analysis and erroneous data

In Ferraz they recognize that their surveys were wrong and that it is a circumstance that sociologists will have to “assess”. But the eyes of the PSOE are also set on Moncloa because in the campaign some “weaknesses” were exhibited that reveal a previous diagnosis failure. It is not explained how they have not intuited the drive for change or the rejection caused by the coalition government with Unidas Podemos or the agreements with ERC and Bildu. And it is surprising because Óscar López, who replaced Iván Redondo as chief of staff, and Antonio Hernando, his number two, know “the party” and “socialist voters.” So, is it that Sánchez does not transfer the information well?

This point, admit different sources, is problematic. If the basic analysis is wrong and the electoral data is wrong, it is difficult to make the right decisions. In addition, they point Sánchez is not an “easy” person To tell you the things you don’t want to hear. The reality is that at this moment in the leadership of the party and in Moncloa they believe that 23J have “an opportunity” again. They assure that “there has not been a movement against” the president and they emphasize that the PP has obtained 800,000 votes difference, 700,000 of them in Madrid where the “Trumpist” discourse of PP and Vox has permeated. The failure has been the collapse of Podemos, they emphasize. The latter makes it obvious that while the PP has eaten Ciudadanos whole, the Socialists have not been able to unite the vote of the purples.

In any case, the decision is to approach the general elections in July as a country test. With a clear message to the progressive electorate: “Either you mobilize or Abascal to Moncloa”. “It is time to ask citizens if they want to follow the path of Bolsonaro’s Brazil, Orban’s Hungary or Meloni’s Italy or continue on the path of a healthy democracy and progress, which is what we have had since 1978.” “They are not just another election. It is a model of the country, of society, antagonistic,” they explain in the socialist direction.