Hi Joost, why are you in São Paulo?
“Lula has settled here with his campaign team and has already announced a press conference as soon as the results are out tonight. That will be quite soon because Brazilians vote electronically. We may already know who has won by 8 p.m. Brazilian time, midnight in the Netherlands. Bolsonaro is presumably in the capital Brasilía where he was during the first round. But he is also popular in São Paulo. If he wins, many supporters will hold demonstrations here. Whatever the outcome, tonight I’ll be right in the middle of the action.”
How will the Brazilians wake up this Sunday?
‘Stretched. These elections have caused enormous polarization. You are in Brazil Bolsonaro supporter or Bolsonaro hater, and Lula supporter or Lula hater. Many Brazilians hardly talk about politics with each other anymore because opinions have drifted so far apart. And there is a lot of fear on both sides – fear of winning the other candidate. Many Bolsonaro supporters really believe that Lula wants to turn Brazil into a repressive communist state. Many Lula voters are terrified of four more years of the radical right-wing Bolsonaro.’
Is Brazil’s democracy at stake in these elections?
‘In a way, yes. Bolsonaro has done his utmost in recent years to undermine democratic institutions. He systematically launched verbal attacks on the rule of law, the Supreme Court and the electoral court. He portrays judges as left-wing, political enemies of his nationalist, religiously conservative project. He glorifies the military dictatorship and has shown that he dares to go very far in his barely disguised calls for violence.
‘The constant enemy thinking has already left a big mark on the atmosphere in the country. The question is where Bolsonaro will lead the country if he stays on for another term. More of the same recipe means even more polarization and even more pressure on an already cracking democracy.
“Lula, to draw the parallel with the US, is more of a Biden. A return to a moderate left path that Brazil already knows. Bolsonaro fans denounce him as a far-left politician, but he never really was. He promises social programs for the poor, an increase in the minimum wage, says he will not privatize companies. But at the same time, he promises to be a moderate fiscal policy and a good manager of the treasury. If he wins, he can’t take a very left-wing course at all, he will have to deal with a parliament in which the right has a strong representation.’
What would a Lula win mean for Brazil?
“Maybe he’s the man who can bring some peace and stability back, someone who can release some steam from the boiling pan that Brazil is today. Lula is a politician who promises to unite. He can do that, he showed that in the past as president and during this campaign he has forged a very broad alliance against Bolsonaro, which also includes center and right-wing politicians and business people.
“At the same time – there’s the US parallel again – Trumpism is still very much alive in the US and Bolsonarism has also become firmly established in Brazil in recent years.”
Do you feel that Brazil is still compatible?
“How Lula is now trying to form that broad coalition is also how he will govern. He transcends his own Workers’ Party in that regard. That was already the case with his previous terms, between 2003 and 2010. Then he became unprecedentedly popular as the great unifier.
“But that doesn’t mean he’s capable of doing the same thing now, if he wins. Since then he has suffered many scratches. His party has completely fallen off its pedestal after the major corruption investigation in the 1990s. And Lula also eventually fell when he was convicted of corruption. That conviction was later annulled, but he remains a damaged politician. Every day Bolsonaro tells his followers: Lula is the leader of a corrupt cabal, a thief, a socialist. A potential president Lula will have to show that the soup will not be eaten as hot in the coming years as it was served by his opponent.’
In one respect, this is an unspectacular election race: there is nothing new to choose from. The Brazilians already know these two men very well.
‘Indeed. These politicians do not have a story of change, above all they have their own track record to refer to. And they instill fear of the other in their voters, huge buckets of fear.
“It’s a bit tragic that after Bolsonaro’s wild ride, the answer from Brazil on the left is the old Lula again. You would think, with the low popularity figures of Bolsonaro in recent years, the target is open to any young left-wing politician who has a bit of charisma and dares to seize that opportunity. But the presidential system makes great figures come to the fore in many elections in Latin America. There are no bigger names in Brazil now than Jair Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva.’
You have been a correspondent in Latin America since the beginning of 2020. Do you feel this is the greatest moment of your correspondentship so far?
‘Difficult question. Personally, I would rather think of other reports that made a deep impression on me, but this is certainly great for the region. Although the recent turnarounds in Chile and Colombia were also very interesting. Chile chose a very young left-wing president and Colombia chose Petro with the black Francia Márquez by his side. Massive changes in Latin America.
“But in terms of the size of the country, the population, the economic interests, Brazil is the largest in the region. The outcome of these elections will have a huge impact. The newly-appointed presidents of neighboring countries Colombia and Chile, for example, are eagerly looking forward to a possible election of Lula.’
I won’t ask that annoying question who you put your money on today.
Most polls give Lula a lead of a few percentage points. But those same polls greatly underestimated Bolsonaro in the first round. If you force me to bet money, I’ll bet my money on Lula. But not all my savings.’