The world must cut its emissions in half by 2030

After a weekend of marathon negotiations, and a tense debate on the final wording of this analysis, the United Nations Panel of Experts on Climate Change has published the largest analysis to date on the measures necessary to stop the climate catastrophe. The report, led by the world’s leading environmental experts and based on thousands of scientific studies, concludes that the only feasible way to avoid extreme global warming is to drastically reduce the emissions generated by human activities. Starting with everything that has to do with the burning of fossil fuels.

The diagnosis of the scientific community is clear. Global greenhouse gas emissions have decades on the rise. From 1850 (with the start of the industrial revolution) until now, the concentration of these substances in the atmosphere has increased. The half of emissions generated by our species correspond to the last three decades. In the last 10 years, the anthropogenic emissions have continued to rise to breaking historical records. In 2019, for example, 12% were issued than the previous year and 54% more than in 1990. In 2020, the covid-19 pandemic achieved a one-off drop in these indicators, but according to the latest analyzes already at the end of 2020 the emissions curve rebounded.

If it continues like this, experts say, the emissions generated by our species will end up triggering an unprecedented climate crisis. To avoid this scenario, the scientific community asks to apply “fast”, “deep” and “immediate” mitigation strategies at all levels of society. In this sense, the report calls for “a substantial reduction in the general use of fossil fuels, the deployment of low-emission energy sources, the switch to alternative energy sources and improving energy efficiency and conservation.”

As this newspaper has learned, the message about the end of fossil fuels has been one of the reasons that has delayed the publication of the report the most. During the final process of reviewing the text, in which all countries had to approve the content of the analysis line by line, several governments have asked to “lower the tone” on the future of these polluting energy sources. In the final version of the study, in fact, there has been no explicit talk of eliminating fossil fuels but to reduce its use as much as possible. This change in language has angered several exponents of the scientific community, who warn that the final message of the report has been “decaffeinated”.

The analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also points out the main pollutants of the globe. According to the study, the richest 10% in the world it emits between 34 and 45% of the total greenhouse gases that flood the planet right now, while the poorest 50% barely contribute 15%. Records from 2019 indicate that the regions that emit the most of the globe they are East Asia (responsible for 27% of global emissions) and North America (12%). Beyond the balance of the countries, the report also points out as a source of contamination the sector of the aviation and international shippingwhose traffic contributes about 2% of all the emissions emitted by humanity.

The increase in emissions in the last decade, estimates the report, can be directly related to pollution emitted in big cities. In 2020, without going any further, the metropolises emitted close to 30 gigatons of CO_twothe equivalent of 72% of the global share of greenhouse gases generated during that year. A large part of these emissions are due to the production of electricity for industrial and domestic consumption. It also highlights the impact of polluting means of transport in increasing emissions and worsening air quality in cities.

The report also points to the need to promote “sociocultural and behavioral change” to curb the climate crisis. one of the examples that the experts cite is the diet change towards a “healthy and sustainable” model based mainly on foods of plant origin and products of animal origin produced in “resilient and sustainable environments”.

“With policies, infrastructure and technology adequate we can reduce between 40% and 70% of emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050,” says researcher Priyadarshi Shukla, co-chair of the working group that led this latest report, hopefully. “We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can ensure a livable future. We have the tools and knowledge to limit warming,” said IPCC Chairman Hoesung Lee.