The world is watching tensely: ‘If Putin falls in Russia, Xi’s last hour has also struck in China’

Read also: Ukrainian reserve colonel: ‘Everything Prigozhin has done is useful for Ukraine’

Most Western countries did not take any action, but followed developments from afar. For example, the preparedness of American soldiers in Europe was not increased: according to American media, the American government did not want to give the impression that it wanted to exploit Putin’s weakness. Latvia closed its border with Russia and increased border security.

The top US military officer and the president’s national security adviser refrained from traveling abroad on Saturday to participate in consultations with Biden. Still, it seems that the US government was not taken completely by surprise.

US secret services not surprised by Prigozhin’s uprising

American media reported that the intelligence services had been expecting an uprising by Prigozhin since mid-June. Both the White House and congressional leaders would have been warned last week that something was afoot. Behind closed doors people were already wondering what the consequences would be for Putin’s position and for control over the nuclear arsenal.

Western politicians used the march on Moscow to underline Putin’s weakness. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Russian unity has now been shown to be a myth. His American colleague Blinken called the march “the first cracks in the facade of Putin’s authoritarian leadership” and an opportunity for Ukraine.

Putin’s visible weakness can easily be seen as an advantage for Ukraine and its allies. At the same time, the prospect of a regime in decline that must hold its own against armed militias from its own circle loomed. Chaos brings uncertainty and new considerations.

Consequences for China

It was a lucky accident for Beijing that the uprising took place over the weekend. Then there is no press conference for foreign media. So the State Department did not have to issue a statement while the outcome of the uprising was still uncertain.

Chinese state media initially kept it short with one message from state news agency Xinhua, which quoted Putin’s speech and reported that anti-terrorism measures were in place. On Sunday, after the uprising was called off, another Xinhua message to the effect that the uprising has hardly posed a serious threat to Putin or to Russia’s united action against Ukraine.

So nothing to worry about. Nevertheless, the subject is also closely followed in China: it is precisely there that people understand how historic the uprising is, or could have become. And what the consequences could have been for China. For example, the hashtag ‘Putin accuses the head of Wagner of treason’ became no less than 1.2 billion views on social media platform Weibo. The news was also trending on many other social media. “The border between China and Russia is very long, and the two countries are closely linked,” one wrote. And if Putin falls in Russia, the last hour for Xi has also struck in China, many Chinese think. Because before you know it, NATO will be on the border with China itself, and everyone knows how aggressive NATO is. It is a weapon in the hands of the US, who are out to keep China small – or so many Chinese have learned from the state media.

The majority of web users are therefore in favor of the Russian authority. People who think otherwise wouldn’t be able to express that easily. Explicit pro-Prigozhin messages would be immediately censored. Yet there was also criticism of so-called Yellow Geese. The word for goose in Chinese sounds like part of the word for Russia, and Yellow Geese refers to Chinese people who are blind fans of Putin and Russia.

Incidentally, there are not that many: Russia may be a political ally, but the distrust of Russia runs deep for historical reasons. Many Chinese see Russia mainly as an unreliable, but for the moment indispensable partner.

Pion Putin

For Chinese President Xi Jinping, Putin is primarily a pawn on a much larger chessboard. Winning the US is the ultimate goal. If Russia becomes more unstable and Putin’s position becomes less self-evident, it will make it much more difficult for China to use Russia for that purpose. Then Russia will turn from an ally into an unreliable problem case.

It is also threatening to China’s internal stability if Putin continues to weaken. The greatest justification for both Putin’s and Xi’s rule is that they bring order and stability. But in Russia, after more than twenty years, that stability suddenly turns out to be no longer so solid. How certain is it then that China will be permanently stable?