Perhaps it is appropriate to introduce nautical language into political terminology. Port and starboard define the left and right sides of a boat… provided that the front or bow is taken as a reference. And so they are designated to avoid the confusion that words convey left Y right, since they mean one side or the other depending on the crew member’s point of view. The fact is that, to a certain extent, in government policies this confusion between left and right, see these days Emmanuel Macron in France, after its setback in the general elections, it is a reality. Or follow the policy of the social democrat of Olaf Scholz in Germany.
Pedro Sanchez It has placed itself, in a display of Bonapartism, above all, even its own Council of Ministers, with the launch of its two star measures: taxes on the banking and electricity sectors.
It has not even explained why these measures fit into a plan to fight inflation. It is assumed that with €5 billion (2023 and 2024) that it expects to collect, the social initiatives would be financed. But he has not explained it that way.
They have a more political than economic quality: they help repair the cracks in the coalition government and ensure the horizon of holding elections in the first days of February 2024.
The electoral campaign for the general elections, in case there was any doubt, has already begun in the state of the nation debatebecause the first round -discounting Castile and Leon Y Andalusia– It will be held in May 2023 with the municipal and regional elections.
If you wanted to substantiate bank taxthe Minister of Economy and First Vice President, Nadia Calvino, could have passed him a very precise note. But it doesn’t look like she did.
Because Sánchez has spoken of extraordinary benefits -which “do not fall from the sky”- that would take place in 2023 and 2024 due to the rise in interest rates.
But it is that in the case of banks not only do they not fall from the sky. It is that the State has contributed in an important way to these benefits, for example, in 2021.
The income statement of Bank of Spain reveals how, following the instructions of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the wake of Covid-19, has paid for negative interest rates of up to 1% to banks.
The Bank of Spain lent them 100 euros and they had to repay approximately 99. A profit for the banks and a loss for the Bank of Spain, that is, for all Spaniards. Because the benefits of the Bank of Spain for that year have been reduced in 2,863.10 million euros for that effect, reducing to 1,875 million.
To make matters worse, this gift was not accompanied by a message of caution: hey, don’t distribute it as a dividend, don’t pay bonuses, it’s better to strengthen your solvency by increasing reserves. Nope.
That 1% is a figure that, when translated into what each bank has received, reveals its full importance. In the case of Santander Bank, represents almost 10% of your total benefit; in caixabank, if the so-called effect of the negative goodwill or ‘badwill’ (what the ECB jargon calls a “bargain”) of Bankia (4,300 million) is removed, the “aid & rdquor; They represent 60/70% of the profit. In the Sabadellthe gain provided by the Bank of Spain accounted for 58% of the total profit.
Negative interest rates resulted, therefore, as we pointed out, in a decrease in the benefits of the Bank of Spain from 4,648 losses to 1,785 million.
Vice President Calviño, apart from making a note in the debate to explain this situation, could even go a step further. If the purpose is to raise money in the bank, why not summon the bankers to ask them, given the social circumstances, to return those funds? 2,863.10 million What was given to them in 2021? Because both in the books of the Bank of Spain and that of the banks everything is individualized. Too easy.
And although it is also easy to climb the tax ratethen convert it to a effective rate, the one who actually pay, is much more difficult. The important thing is the effective collection. What is the use of saying that they are going to pay 35% or 40% if tax deductions and other intricacies or the use of tax havens and the pretext of double taxation allow these large international conglomerates to pay much less than they should.
Raising the tax rate has, for all these reasons, more than aesthetic measure that of efficiency. I mean, get the headline. And he has achieved it.
The case of the power companies It is different. They have been benefiting from a calculation of the marginal cost system that, by prioritizing the price of the most expensive energy with the incorporation of gas, they are committing an abuse, given that when the price has skyrocketed, some have benefited with very low costs , how are the wind waves photovoltaic. In addition, in this field, the Government has already achieved success with the Iberian exception, whose communication has not been effective.
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And, paradoxically, the most scattered message is the one referring to the fight against inflation. It must be said that the ECB has been incapable of adopting measures until a few weeks ago and those that it has resolved -rate hikes- will not have an effect on Keynes-style profit inflation, not on wages.
And in this context, the Ministry of Consumption should serve to stifle inflationary expectations that are transmitted through the anticipation of price increases through the action of inspectors. It is about creating a climate against ‘I can, I’ll take it’ or ‘every man for himself’.