As the war in Ukraine becomes entrenched, the expense of European Union (EU) to defend its ally shoots itself. The rising cost of the conflict, rising prices at home and slow Ukrainian progress on the ground now threaten to erode support for Kyiv. Public opinion is increasingly skeptical, but even so it continues to focus mainly on promoting economic and military aid. However, the speeches favorable to Russia They have more and more strength in positions of power.
The elections this Saturday in Slovakia they confirm it. After five years in the opposition, the national populist Robert Fico He emerged as the winner of the elections with almost 23% of the votes. Forming a government will not be easy for him, but his more than likely return to power worries both Brussels like to the NATO. Until now, the country had advocated exporting weapons to Ukraine and tightening sanctions against Russian assets, but that could change. Fico has opposed both measures and has replicated the false theses of the Russian president, Vladimir Putinblaming “Ukrainian fascists and neo-Nazis” for the start of the invasion.
The victory of the social conservative party Smer-SD – split from a post-communist formation – reflects a growing trend in the country. Only 43% of Slovaks believe that Kremlin is responsible for the attack on Ukraine and 39% blame USA and NATO from war, According to a survey from the Bratislava-based think tank GlobSec. It is also the only country in Eastern Europe that has a largely negative perception of Ukrainian refugees. More than half would prefer Moscow won the war, according to another survey.
Hungary, illiberal champion
Although his position is more fragile, Fico’s electoral victory could tilt Slovakia towards a position similar to that of Hungarywhere Viktor Orbán He has been in power for more than a decade. The far-right prime minister is considered the champion of illiberal democracy, an authoritarian model within the EU that has curtailed rights and freedoms.
This is not the only drift that has put Brussels in an uncomfortable situation. Although the country is part of NATO, it has opposed the war and has accepted the arrival of Ukrainian refugees, Orbán has built economic bridges with Russia and has blocked and reduced sanctions on its main energy supplier. Last week he assured that he will not support Ukraine in “any international matter”, in relation to the European summit in December in which the 27 must decide whether to allow negotiations to begin for the country’s future accession to the EU.
This reactionary turn has also been reflected in society. 43% of Hungarians blame the Kremlin for the war, while 27% point to Washington, according to the survey from GlobSec.
Bulgaria and Greece
Bulgaria It is another of the few EU members where Euroscepticism and Russophilia are growing. The country has one of the weakest supports for economic sanctions and 59% of its population sees the sending weapons to Ukraine as a “provocation” more than as a “help”. Only 53% trust their membership in NATO – the worst confidence index among all its members – and 32% have a positive view of Putin, a much higher figure than in other countries in the center and east of the continent. Although the new government has promised to eradicate Russian influence from the country, the extreme right anti-NATO, Russophile and Eurosceptic, it continues to gain influence and is already the third strongest party.
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Support for Ukraine is also losing strength in other corners of the EU. It is the case of Greece either malt. A internal document to which Euractiv had access points out that both countries are in the queue in the freezing of Russian assets. He support for sanctions among Greeks is below 30% and Athens has blocked the latest package of economic reprimands against the Kremlin in retaliation for the blockade that Ukraine has applied to Greek companies that have continued to do business with Russian companies.
Russophile on the way to the EU
The war has also highlighted the pro-Russian position of Serbia. Although the country is not part of the EU, it has been listed as a candidate country for accession since 2012. Unlike what happens in neighboring Balkan territories with the same status as Albania, North Macedonia either Bosnianear a 80% of Serbs They reject sanctions or condemn the invasion of Russia, a country with which they maintain a friendly relationship. Even so, Belgrade continues to balance to decide whether to opt for Brussels or surrender to Moscow.