According to a recent survey by the consultancy Opinion Argentinathere is a pronounced demand for change: two-thirds of those surveyed would vote for an opposition candidate in front of everyone. However, when consulted by political forces, the ruling party retains electoral competitiveness.
In terms of political spaces, it is registered a very even stage of thirds between Juntos (29%), the Frente de Todos (29%) and La Libertad Avanza (26%). He federal peronism and the FITfor their part, measure 4%which supports those in JXC who ask to expand the space to add Juan Schiaretti from Cordoba, and obtain the necessary votes to succeed in October and a possible ballotage.
On the PASO stage, within Juntos, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta (13%) beats Patricia Bullrich (10%) by a minimum difference, which is within the margin of error. In turn, according to Opina Argentina, Massa prevails in the internal of the FdT forcefully: would have 14% of the votes and would surpass Wado de Pedro and Daniel Scioli.
But in case of being the unity candidate of the ruling party, a synthesis that only Cristina Kirchner could achieve by exerting his influence to bring down the Minister of the Interior and the former motorboat, the numbers of the Minister of Economy climb to 29% and would become the candidate with the most votes in the PASO, relegating Javier MIlei.
In the different scenarios of general elections (unique candidacies per space), Horacio Rodriguez Larreta leads Massa and Patricia Bullrich. Both competitions, in any case, are framed within the scenario of thirds in a technical tie between Juntos, FdT and La Libertad Avanza.
For his part, the intention to vote for federal Peronism is inelastic against possible changes in the electoral offer of Juntos. With both a moderate candidate (Rodríguez Larreta) and a “hawkish” candidate (Bullrich), federal Peronism registers 4% of the vote.
In this sense, the hypothesis that a profile of tough candidates in the main political arenas could benefit the federal peronism does not seem to be verified. And on the contrary, that segment would be the boost that JXC needs to definitely tip the balance in front of a terribly closed stage.
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