Pedro Sánchez faces his first state of the nation debate, which has not been held in recent years. And after the defeat in Andalusia, the latest polls and inflation of 10.8% it is not easy for him. The opposition will throw itself at his neck, the ‘allies’ will show reservations and Podemos may show divergences.
In the last three polls (‘El Mundo’, ‘El País’ and ‘El Confidencial’), the PP has a clear advantage that seems to confirm a cycle change. The popular ones oscillate between 118 and 139 seats against a PSOE that has a maximum of 103 (‘El País’) and a minimum of 95. And Vox, still holding back its rise, almost doubles Podemos in seats. Yolanda Díaz has already presented her platform, but it is only a project.
Why do the government parties collapse? Iván Redondo, former director of Sánchez’s Cabinet -referring to Belén Barreiro’s judgment after a survey by ‘El País’ weeks ago- says that the cause is that the Government does it well, but it falls badly. It should therefore tell better what he does. Is it so?
Yes, things have been done well, such as holding up the economy and employment from the State to survive the pandemic. So did other European countries, and the price was a sharp increase in public debt. It was not a problem, since the ECB financed the deficit. But neither Sánchez nor other governments (Macron) said that the money with which they ‘nationalized’ the salaries should be returned. And when the central banks, due to the unexpected increase in inflation, raise rates and stop buying public debt, expectations worsen.
Ukraine has changed everything, but the citizen gets upset when shopping cart prices skyrocket. And there are other things in which the Government acts recklessly. Agreeing on the law of democratic memory with Bildu is defensible, but it is elementary that it will polarize and dislike part of society, not only the right. Felipe González: “It doesn’t sound good to me.”
And, true, the Government does not know how to communicate. It is his fault, because since the departure of Carmen Calvo and José Luis Abalos he has lost weight. And losing political clout in the middle of the legislature is not doing it right. The worst thing is that you can’t ‘sell’ hits when the two government partners disagree in public every day on main issues: the Sahara, military aid to Ukraine, the increase in the Defense budget…
When the big headlines are two excessive noises, the government-opposition clash and the continuous anger between the ministers of the PSOE, accused of compromising with the world right, and those of Podemos, of a leftism alien to social democratic practice, it would be titans to insufflate confidence. Let’s go back to Felipe González: “Whoever governs without taking charge of the mood of the people is doomed to failure … even when he is right & rdquor ;.
Sánchez plays it with the approval this week of the new economic decree, the law of the Judicial Power and the one of democratic memory
We will have to see the debate on the state of the nation, but the key will be what happens on Thursday when, in principle, three relevant issues must be approved: the second economic decreethe modification of the law of the General Council of the Judiciary to unblock the Constitutional and the democratic memory law. If these three laws pass, the Government will have weathered the storm and will have to face the two not-so-easy challenges of autumn: the worsening of the economy and the 2023 Budget pact.
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But if any of these issues -such as the economic decree- shipwreck next Thursday, the Sánchez government will be on the verge of collapse. The so-called Frankenstein pact (of the PSOE and parties such as Podemos or ERC and Bildu, with sometimes very distant ideas) was effective for the motion of censure against Rajoy. And to govern for a certain time, but now the continuous clashes in the Executive on issues such as the war in Ukraine or politics in North Africa indicate that it is difficult for him to endure a legislature.
It is against nature for government ministers to harshly censor their own government in relation to the United States, NATO, or Morocco. But Sánchez does not rectify, he wants to save this week’s votes and approve the 2023 Budgets in September. Will he achieve it? And, if not, is Sánchez, who has shown acrobatics if not pragmatism, definitely linked to the pact with Podemos? Can Yolanda Díaz change the equation?