Hi Tom, what are the latest developments on the Eastern Ukrainian front?
“There has been more fighting along the entire front since Thursday. It is a 450 kilometer long front between the Ukrainian government army and separatists. Heavier artillery, such as mortar shells, is fired and there are also reports of tanks that had not been active there for years. Because of peace agreements, those tanks are not allowed to be there at all.
“I don’t know how many times I haven’t had to say it lately, but tensions are mounting. You notice that in Kiev too. A 27-year-old woman here told me that she regularly breaks down in the street crying. She has fled from Donetsk, the stronghold of the separatists. She knows what war is. She has been hearing for three months now that another war may be coming. Psychologically this is very hard for Ukrainians.
“We must also not forget how hard this is for the inhabitants of the separatist area. They have been at war for eight years. Their leaders have now said it is time for an evacuation. People are being urged to leave their homes, pack their bags and go to Russia as soon as possible. That causes a lot of stress and anxiety.
“The men who can fight are not allowed to leave. They have already been called up to report to the army. I spoke in northern Ukraine with two boys who fled separatist territory just in time. Many other people are late. It is a deeply human drama that threatens to unfold on both sides of the front line.’
Meanwhile, there is also a war of disinformation going on. How do you cope as a journalist?
‘That is indeed very difficult. Of course you are not always there. I spent a few days in the trenches at the front, but at some point I had to go back.
“The pro-Russian separatists and Russia are spreading many reports that Ukraine has chosen the attack. As a journalist I try to check those messages, as difficult as that is. At the moment they are unfounded. There is evidence that a kindergarten on the Ukrainian side was hit by mortar shells. Photos of the ruins soon emerged. I didn’t write that down until I saw confirmation from observers.
“The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) independent monitoring mission is important in confirming facts, but it is under increasing pressure. The Netherlands and America have withdrawn their employees because they find it too unsafe.’
How does that mission work?
‘Her employees monitor the entire front every day. They grab a pen and paper and note how many shots they hear. At the end of the day they make a report of it. They have already registered a fivefold increase in the number of explosions.
“But what the mission doesn’t report is who starts firing. The separatists always say Ukraine is starting, and Ukraine always says the separatists are starting.
‘Ukraine, however, has no interest in such an attack. When I was at the front a week and a half ago, soldiers told me they were ordered not to fire. Even when they are shot at, they remain reluctant. The Ukrainian army thinks that Russia is trying to provoke them, so that Russia can say that it must intervene.’
How is it that Russian and Ukrainian analysts still do not believe that a large-scale invasion is coming, when US President Biden is convinced?
Biden’s words are part of America’s way of avoiding war. It is the US strategy to deter Russia. The Americans have awakened other countries with their alarming warnings.
“Russian and Ukrainian analysts think a large-scale invasion is too risky for Putin. He would risk Russian soldiers’ lives and face harsh economic sanctions. Moreover, an invasion does not fit with the way Russia operates abroad under Putin.’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to the Munich security conference today. What can be expected from that consultation?
“It is important for Zelensky to get support from his Western allies. He is trying to keep calm in Ukraine to prevent people from fleeing en masse. That, he says, is exactly what Russia wants.
‘That is also the reason why Zelenski is going to Munich today. Biden had advised him against it because the invasion could start any moment. But Zelensky wants to show that Ukraine does not believe in that. He is also not very happy with the particularly alarming messages from the US. Zelensky does go back to Kiev immediately after his performance.’