The school faces the challenge of losing 20% ​​of the student body in 10 years due to the low birth rate

close schools because they remain empty is not exactly good news. And the ones most in danger are, logically, the smallest. Specialists in educational policy ask the Government to take measures now to face a challenge that also affects neighboring countries, such as Italy, Portugal and Greece. Meanwhile, France and the US are saved because their birth rate is higher.

Between 2015 and 2020, Spain has suffered a average demographic decline of 19.2%, according to INE statistics. Some communities exceed that percentage. As Asturias (25.8%). And others are below, such as the Balearic Islands (11.7%). Xavier Martínez-Celorrio, professor of Sociology at the University of Barcelona and an expert in educational issues, explains that the drop in birth rates will not have an immediate impact in the classroom, but it will from the academic year 2026/27. The most affected territories will be the least populated, such as Castilla y León, Asturias, Galicia, Cantabria and Extremadura.

It already happened in Eastern Europe

Lucas Gortázarresearcher of Esade and specialist in education and social policy, recalls that the loss of students is already something that Spain suffered in the 90’s the last century. “It was smoother and resulted in the closure of some primary schools & rdquor ;, she explains. The whiplash that is coming in Spain is similar to what the countries of Eastern Europe. “The birth rate plummeted and there was a mass school closureespecially in rural areas”, highlights the researcher, who predicts that this story will repeat itself in our country if the necessary preventive policies are not taken now.

A considerable drop in students is not good news for public coffers because it implies a increase in cost per student. Above all, in small schools, those with only one line and about 20 children per classroom. “There are fewer students, so the costs of teaching staff, facilities, cleaning, dining room, electricity, heating skyrocket to double or triple that of a large school”, underlines the Esade researcher. Given this scenario, there are two options. “One is to do nothing. The other is to make decisions that can be painful but are necessary to face the challenge,” concludes Gortazar, who will investigate this phenomenon at Esade and publish the corresponding report, as they have already done with the boom in private classes in Spain.

For the researcher it does not make any sense to maintain centers with classrooms of 8 or 16 students because “school, especially in secondary, is a space for socialization& rdquor ;. “There is a clear defense of the Spain emptiedBut we can’t have everything. Lines or schools should be closed and the resources used to improve infrastructure and redirect students. Political measures must be taken. And it’s much better to do it consensual and planned way that not in a hurry and suddenly & rdquor ;, he stands out.

Gortazar insists that the economic allocation for education is limited, and more than it will be when the european funds for post-pandemic recovery. In the next decade, public spending will go to pensions, health and care. “Thinking that Spain will allocate 7% of its GDP to education is pure imagination & rdquor ;, he concludes.

If measures are not taken in time, Gortazar predicts something like a school war or a hunt for the student (something that is also happening at the university). The Spanish educational system – between the public school and the subsidized one – brings into play the ideology that each communitywho, depending on their political color, will bet on and defend one type of school to the detriment of others.

the university professor Martinez-Celorrio He is convinced that a part of the concerted school (especially the family ones, the smaller ones) will close due to the loss of students or will be absorbed by the public network, something that has already begun to happen, little by little, in Catalonia. His vision, however, is not so pessimistic because he considers that the Immigration can help offset demographic loss. “According to forecasts, by 2050 some 8.6 million migrants will come to Spain,” he points out. “In the face of new problems, new solutions must be found. I do not forecast a massive closure of educational centers. I rather bet for resize them”, he explains.

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The teacher adds that the drop in new births will cause the universalization of education 0-3 years (first cycle of kindergarten) free. Regarding the closure of certain small schools, the expert suggests the possibility of converting them into flats for young people or the elderly. Another idea that Martínez-Celorrio suggests is the recovery of the figure of schools, spaces that already exist in Catalonia and where primary and secondary students are grouped.

drop in ratios

Before all this, the first measure that the Government should take, Martínez-Celorrio insists, is to lower the ratios, something that requires a legislative change. “The highs have not been lowered since 1991, it’s about time & rdquor ;, emphasizes the expert, who asks to restrict from 25 to 20 in primary school, from 30 to 23 in ESO (the same as in FP) and from 35 to 24 in high school. The drop in ratios is important throughout the territory, but even more so in the institutes located in vulnerable neighborhoods, where the Spanish average is 27.8 students despite the OECD average being 24.2. “The ratios must be lowered with equity criteria. The most urgent thing is to do it in the thousand poorest neighborhoods in Spain & rdquor ;, he adds.