The Russian invasion of Ukraine It didn’t take long to trigger the anxiety in energy marketsvery much aware of the decisions that the Kremlin may adopt on the hydrocarbon supply to Europe and the potential western sanctions about the Russian energy industry.
The future price of natural gas which is used as a reference in the continent shot up 30% when its price opened in Amsterdam to be around 115 euros per megawatt hour, its highest price since December, seven times what it cost a year ago. The barrel of Brent oilfor its part, broke $100 for the first time in eight years. Very pronounced increases that threaten to intensify the very high prices of fuels and a inflation which is shot on both sides of the Atlantic.
The turbulence, however, has only just begun and uncertainty is the norm. The European Union It has a huge dependence on hydrocarbons from the Slavic giant, which is the main supplier of fossil fuels to Europe. During the first semester of 2021 it contributed the 47% of the natural gas used on the continent and the 25% of its oil, according to Euostat statistics. The Russian President, Vladimir Putinsaid at the beginning of the week that he does not plan to cut off the flow of gas to Europe, essential for countries like Finland, Bulgaria, Slovakia and, to a lesser extent, for Germany and Italy, which buy almost half of the gas they consume from Russia. Spain is one of the countries that depends least on Russian gas.
Possible sanctions against the Russian energy sector
But launching the offensive, which could become Europe’s largest war since World War II, carries many risks. Starting with the fate that the gas pipelines that cross Ukraine in the direction of Western Europe if the bombings intensify or the response that Russia can give to the massive Western sanctions that do not stop raining on its economy. “The course of events It will largely depend on how Europe and the US react.& rdquor ;, Hans van Cleef, an economist at the ABN Amro bank, told ‘Bloomberg’. “Will they impose sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sectors or not?”
In recent months, the European Union has intensified negotiations with various exporters of liquefied natural gas to cover its back in case Moscow uses energy again as geopolitical weapon in its conflict with NATO and its member countries. But status of your reservationswhich are at the lowest levels of the last decade, and the supply shortage prevailing in recent months, give Putin enormous power over the continent’s energy fortunes and its economic recovery after the pandemic. “The global price of oil and liquefied natural gas has a high chance of rise sharply in case a conflict breaks out & rdquor ;, Moody’s consulting warned on Wednesday, hours before the Russian leader announced the start of the offensive on Ukraine.
At the moment there is no evidence that Russian fuel flows have been interrupted or that the start of the conflict has affected the supply that arrives through Ukraine. “We’re fulfilling all our obligations to transport the gas & rdquor ;, has said the Ukrainian company responsible for the Ukrainian gas pipelines.