The rules disappear, the virus doesn’t

Nearly half a million people received a positive result from a corona test last week. Suppose, says clinical epidemiologist Frits Rosendaal (LUMC), that half of the people actually have a test taken at the GGD. Then there are a million people who have been infected with the coronavirus. “A surprising amount,” says Rosendaal.

And yet the cabinet wants to abolish all corona rules next week. The Hague sources report to NRC that Minister Ernst Kuipers (Public Health, D66) also wants to abolish the mouth mask obligation in public transport and a negative test certificate at larger indoor events. Reportedly, only the advice still applies, such as washing hands and testing in the event of complaints. The Outbreak Management Team met on Friday about the measures, the cabinet will make a decision on Tuesday.

Is there nothing left to worry about now?

Sick hospital staff

The coronavirus is not yet a cold, says Rosendaal, but he is no longer really worried about the high numbers of infections: “I think hospitals are no longer really concerned about the number of new patients. That’s only going up a little bit. Thanks to vaccinations and previous infections, it is not much more than the annual flu wave. Absenteeism among staff is a bigger problem.”

Epidemiologist Alma Tostmann of Radboudumc also sees this, where everything must be done to complete the schedules. “If a lot of people in the population become infected, that also applies to the hospital staff. For Omikron, we had five to ten positive tests per day, including staff working for example in the administrative departments. A few weeks ago there were thirty, which caused problems. Now there are about seventy a day.” The puzzle of the roster has so far just been put together without the need to deploy infected staff – but the coronavirus still determines what can and cannot be done in hospitals.

Tostmann therefore still has some concerns about the infection figures: “Of course, the number of hospital admissions is no longer as high as last year. But the shelter that was there for a while last summer, when there were only two hundred patients, is not there either. There are now more than 1,500 Covid patients in hospital. In addition to the high absenteeism among staff, a lot of delayed care must also be made up for. If there are more corona patients, it means that we cannot do other treatments.”

Tostmann would therefore like to wait with abolishing the last rules until the wave of contamination is over. “Of course the country does not have to be locked again. But you can see that more elderly people are getting infected than in January. I expect that this will lead to more hospital admissions.”

Before further relaxation, an alternative must be found, says Tostmann: first, for example, the ventilation must be in order in the catering industry, in schools and other public spaces. And there must be a clear plan for what will happen if bigger problems arise, for example due to a new virus variant. “You can pretend it’s over and move on as if it never happened, but I don’t think that’s wise,” Tostmann says.

New variants

Rosendaal does think that the last rules can be abolished. “I would drop those last few measures, they don’t do much anymore. Look at how many people got infected at Carnival. Omikron is so contagious, to keep it under control you have to close everything again, but it’s not worth it anymore. Everyone is going to get it now, whether you have to wear a mask on the train or not.”

But the cabinet must act now, says Rosendaal. “You have to prepare for new variants. Are the stocks of medical masks, virus inhibitors and vaccines in order? Do we have enough IC beds, or should they be expanded? How do we prevent schools from having to close again, is the ventilation there in order and are there options for hybrid teaching, with some students in the classroom and some at home?” You shouldn’t wait too long with that, says Rosendaal. “Perhaps you are preparing for something that will not come, but the cabinet has been too positive before. Everyone is now thinking: we are going to have a nice summer and maybe something will come in the autumn, but a new variant can also come in May.”