Humanity is “woefully ill-prepared” for this risk, scientists warn in study
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano, which took place last December in the Kingdom of Tonga, was a wake-up call for the devastating consequences that these phenomena can have. With unprecedented force, which made the eruption noticeable even in Barcelona, this explosive event that took place in the Pacific Ocean caused a tsunami that caused irreparable damage to the coasts of the Polynesian country.
However, experts warn that the risks that events with this force or even greater magnitude occur in the coming years are significant. They also stress that the world is “woefully ill-prepared” for a massive volcanic eruption.
Hunga-Tonga’s eruption in January was the largest ever recorded. However, experts maintain that the consequences could have been devastating if the volcanic activity had been prolonged. “The Tonga eruption should be treated as a wake-up call,” explains Dr. Lara Mani, an expert on global risk.
To this, he adds that the data collected so far suggest that the probability of explosions seven times the magnitude of the Tonga volcano occurring in the next hundred years has increased to one in six. “This type of gigantic eruptions have caused sudden climatic changes and the collapse of civilizations in the distant past,” warns the researcher.
“Reckless” lack of investment
As Mani points out in a study published for the magazine ‘Nature‘, there is a lack of government investment in “surveillance and response to possible volcanic catastrophes”. The member of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge maintains that there is a “widespread misconception” that the risks of large eruptions are low.
“Every year hundreds of millions of dollars are invested in asteroid threats, but there is a serious lack of financing and global coordination for the preparation of volcanoes,” insists the volcanologist, who compares the consequences of a massive eruption with the impact of a kilometer-wide asteroid.
Dr. Mike Cassidy, co-author of the study in question, refers to a historical precedent in volcanic activity: “The last magnitude 7 eruption occurred in 1815 in Indonesia. It is estimated that 100,000 people died at a local level, and global temperatures dropped by one degree on average, causing massive crop failures that led to famines, violent riots and epidemics in what became known as the year without a summer”, explains the researcher.
“We now live in a world with eight times the population and more than forty times the level of trade. Our complex global networks could make us even more vulnerable to the impacts of a large eruption,” adds Cassidy.
….
Environment section contact: [email protected]