Catalonia “surely” has already surpassed the peak of flu infections, but both hospitals and primary care centers (CAP) continue with a lot of activity. This week’s predictions Computational Biology and Complex Systems Group (Biocomsc) from the UPC coincide with the data from the epidemiological surveillance system of the Department of Health, that show indications that the incidence has begun to decrease this week. Even so, this is still even bigger than that which occurred during the epidemic peaks of previous years and the pre-pandemic years.
Experts do not rule out a resurgence of the virus and warn that transmission remains very high
“Surely we have passed the flu peak, but we will have to see the back to school effect“he points out Daniel López-Codina, member of Biocomsc. “It is not ruled out that we have a rebound. We hope the drop is slow but progressive. We will continue in very high values the next few days”, Add.
“It has always been very difficult for people to get vaccinated for the flu”
This Wednesday’s weekly balance from the Department of Health, which collects data from January 1 to 7, shows that all respiratory viruses (and especially the flu) were increasing last week. However, according to health workers different hospitals and primary care centers (CAP) Catalans, the situation regarding infections is “something better” this week, although they acknowledge that they are still very saturated.
In primary care it has helped a lot that, after the Christmas holidays, the complete toilet templates. “We noticed a increase in activity compared to previous weeks, but the return of staff from vacation is helping. There is more vaccination activation orders on the part of nursing,” he points out Jordi Mestres Lucero, member of the Catalan Society of Family and Community Medicine (Camfic) and family doctor at the CAP Sanllehy in Barcelona. Other CAPs, such as Rio de Janeiro in Barcelona, are “calmer” this week than last.
Vaccination failure
Flu vaccination is the aspect that has failed the most in this year’s season. Some epidemiologists have missed that the Department of Health and the Ministry of Health did massive calls to vaccination. However, other sources consulted blame the population’s apathy for this year’s failure. “It has always cost a lot get people vaccinated against the flu,” say the nurses, who, however, have noticed that there is a “rebound in requests” to get immunized this week. “People want to get vaccinated when the wolf is already at home and not before. In addition, people became fed up with vaccines with the covid and now it costs a lot,” they lament.
According to Salut figures, the vaccine coverage for covid It is 59% for those over 80 years old and 45% for those between 70 and 79 years old. The flu coverage in these groups it is 66% and 53% respectively. These are insufficient figures in both cases, according to health authorities.
“More stabilized”
Hospitals like Del Mar are somewhat “more stabilized.” “We are in a flat phase. We have a lot of work, a lot, but activity has stabilized,” explains the head of Infectious Diseases at Hospital del Mar, Robert Güerri. “The entrance [en las Urgencias] has dropped a little probably because the susceptible patients of becoming infected”, assesses this infectious disease specialist.
According to him, in the hospital a lot of people keep coming in, but the number of patients “has not continued to increase.” Still, by sheer probability, 1% of those who enter They can get serious and “little by little” The ICUs and critical areas are filled. “The situation is complicated, but non explosive like covid. And especially now They no longer enter with such intensity, what happens is that we are With the water up to the neck”, Guerri says.
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Also hospitals like Terrassawho reported the “collapse” of their Emergencies at the end of the year, are now “better” because there are fewer patients pending admission (21 compared to 38 on December 31) and new beds have been opened on the ward.
Those who are calmer are the pediatricians. “This looks like summer,” explains the CAP Poblenou pediatrician Carlos Losana. The vaccine, last September, against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, responsible for many bronchiolitis) in babies up to six months old has prevented many visits to the emergency room and hospital admissions in minors. “But this happens every year. Children stop getting infected at school and daycare, and the first week of January there is almost no work”, says Losana, who assures that “the curve in pediatrics is already going down.”