The Russian offensive on Ukraine It has drastically changed many aspects of our daily lives. But, above all, it has revolutionized the international scene. Russia It has been isolated, although not completely. Other countries like Iran or China They have given him a hand. The researchers Ellie Geranmayeh and Nicole Grajewski, of the Middle East and North Africa program of the European Council on Foreign Relations, They address the extent to which these last two powers have come closer. In their report ‘Just the two of us: How the war in Ukraine conditions Russian-Iranian relations’, they also expose the new risks to which West is exposed because of the deepening of this union.
How has the war in Ukraine changed the relationship between Russia and Iran?
Nicole Grajewski [N.G.]: The war in Ukraine was a catalyst for this relationship in many ways. There was already a foundational magnitude of it in terms of common discontent towards the international order, towards certain domestic political developments, but the war in Ukraine really accelerated this relationship. We see this both in the political and economic spheres. Partly due to their international situation, Russia and Iran have begun to collaborate more in areas that were previously quite weak in this relationship. Something that worries Europe and the United States is the military dimension of the relationship, which has undergone a marked transformation. Before the war in Ukraine, Russia was the one supplying weapons and armaments to Iran. And now we see Iran supplying Russia with more advanced drones, equipment and technologies than before.
What has been the change in the economic sphere?
NG: Russia and Iran are collaborating more closely in areas such as cooperation on de-dollarization and international currency trade. Furthermore, within both Russia and Iran, there are internal developments that appear to parallel the rise of hardline figures and individuals who are more antagonistic toward the West.
In terms of your military relationship, where is the relationship going?
NG: Historically, Russia has been quite reluctant to call this relationship a strategic partnership, partly because it doesn’t want to antagonize countries like Israel or the Persian Gulf states, but also because it doesn’t want to be forced in terms of a mutual relationship with a defense package, for example. But this is a flexible collaboration. There are many key points in common when it comes to their visions or their kind of aspirations for the broader processes of international order, but there is also a deep-rooted sense of mistrust. Especially, as shown in our report, Iranian elites still do not fully trust Russia, as there are still many legacies from the past and they are not really open to some of Russia’s intentions. So the relationship is and probably will be flexible. But it works this way by design: Russia and Iran can work in areas where there are common interests, but also avoid areas of tension and work more towards where they really have synergies.
How does the Kremlin view this relationship?
NG: Delving deeper into Russian decision-making is difficult and there are many inconsistencies. In Russia there is fear that Iran could potentially swing towards the West because that would reduce its influence in Tehran. One of the areas where it has had the most influence is the nuclear issue. So, when we delve into much of the Russian elite’s thinking on the nuclear issue, it becomes clear that certain divisions exist. It’s quite fascinating because before there was a lot more skepticism towards the potential militarization of the Iranian program, but that has changed since the war in Ukraine. For some of these elite thinkers, especially hardliners, a nuclear-capable Iran would be less dangerous than an Iran close to the West. So there is a bit of a mosaic of opinions in Russia when it comes to Iran, but it often reflects internal divisions within the country.
Should Europe and the United States worry about the nature of this evolving relationship?
Ellie Geranmayeh [E. G.]: Many European policymakers have now put Russia-Iran relations at the top of their agendas, whereas two years ago they would barely feature as a priority issue. This deepening relationship between Russia and Iran is the greatest threat to Western interests. In our report, we recommend that Europeans work with the United States to stop this relationship and understand that they will not be able to stop it completely, but that there are ways to reduce the partnership in strategic areas of interest to the West.
What are these ways?
EG: There are three main ways. The first is to reduce transfers of the most sophisticated Iranian weapons to Russia, which will likely be used in Ukraine. The second thing that should really worry the West is that Iran advances its nuclear program with Russia’s tacit approval and, in some cases, actual encouragement. The third area is for this military partnership to extend to places like Syria and lead to another military escalation, particularly with the United States.
The use of diplomacy with Russia seems to be out of the question at the moment for Europeans and Americans. Are there more possibilities to talk to Iran?
EG: There is now an opportunity given the gestures of detente between Iran and the West in recent weeks [como la liberación de cinco ciudadanos de EEUU tras el desbloqueo de fondos iranís en Corea del Sur]. In the past we used to see Russia as the weak link in this negotiating relationship between Russia and Iran. Right now, the West is in a position where it cannot make deals with the Kremlin on Iran, but with Tehran there is an openness and also a debate at the highest level of leaders within the country, who might be able to influence . To curb Iran’s partnership with Russia, the West could anticipate economic compensation in exchange for security measures from Iran. The West can offer immediate economic relief, more tangible than its eastern partners, such as China and Russia, have been able to offer. Those relations are falling short in key areas of economic trade that Iran is seeking right now after years of crippling sanctions.
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But with these efforts, the debate over human rights in Iran is rising again.
EG: Yes, this approach on the diplomatic front carries several risks, including the human rights component. All of this comes at a time when the Iranian authority is exercising an incredibly repressive hand on the home front, but we believe there are ways for the West to continue to highlight human rights abuses and hold the Iranian authorities accountable, as well as promote support tangible to activists on the ground as it attempts to dent cooperation between Russia and Iran in areas that pose a strategic threat to the security of Europe and the United States. Our article ends by projecting the notion that the time to influence the Russians is now because the longer this continues, particularly the Ukraine conflict, the more likely it is that the hardline-driven security alliance in both countries will develop a codependent relationship and is consolidated in all areas.