The PSOE trusts in maintaining its territorial power and prioritizes recovering BCN

Pedro Sánchez already warned his colleagues on the PSOE federal committee on July 23: the “clear priority” is the municipal and regional elections on May 28. Because in them the game is played all its territorial power, and maintaining it is capital for the next competition, the general ones scheduled for December 2023. Until now, so far in the legislature, there have been elections in Euskadi, Galicia, Catalonia, Madrid, Castilla y León, Andalusia. But in none of them a socialist started as president. The 28-M yes. Hence, the PSOE is very aware that these are your real choices, and the perspectives that he manages, in the leadership of Sánchez and in the federations, are not at all pessimistic. Trust to keep your nine regional governments —in addition to Cantabria, where he is the minority partner of the Executive—, with the doubt about La Rioja. And he also aspires to win the local and build muscle in the big cities, which is by far his unfinished business. Reconquer Barcelona It seems the bet more within reach of the hand. Of course, much more than Madrid, which escaped his control a whopping 33 years ago.

In Moncloa they do not deny the reality of the polls, which unanimously paint the PP ahead in general. But immediately after, they add that if the succession of regional governments between 2020 and 2022 has shown anything, it is that citizens have revalidated the trust in their respective presidents, with the exception of Catalonia, where the PSC was first with Salvador Illa at the helm and ERC took over the leadership of the pro-independence spectrum, above Junts. Thus, Iñigo Urkullu in the Basque Country, Alberto Núñez Feijóo in Galicia —replaced last May by Alfonso Rueda—, Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco in Castilla y León and Juanma Moreno in Andalusia were re-elected. That sequence, the one with the “consolidation“Of the governments that have been at the forefront of managing the pandemic, sources close to Sánchez believe, it will be repeated on 28-M.

“The polls in all the territories in which we govern are good for the PSOE or show that there is battle“, they conclude in turn in Ferraz, where a detailed pre-electoral study is pending, which will begin to work when they return from vacation. According to a first analysis, therefore, none would be in danger of the nine autonomous governments led by the socialists: the most entrenched are Adrián Barbón (Asturias), Guillermo Fernández Vara (Extremadura), Emiliano García-Page (Castilla-La Mancha) —both are the only ones to enjoy absolute majorities— and Angel Victor Torres (Canary Islands).

They are also expected to repeat, although the sums will always be complicated by the parliamentary fragmentation, Ximo Puig (Valencia), Javier Lambán (Aragon), Francina Armengol (Balearic Islands) and María Chivite (Navarra). The community that would appear ‘a priori’ more complicated, according to the federal leadership, is La Rioja, since Concha Andreu achieved the investiture after a very expensive agreement with United We Can, and together they add one more seat than PP and Cs. Madrid Y Murciaaccording to the calculations of the PSOE, will once again be won by the right, in Castile and Leon in theory there will be no ballot boxes (there were last February) and in Cantabria The coalition between Miguel Ángel Revilla’s PRC and Pablo Zuloaga’s PSOE may be reissued. This, as regional vice president, and all the socialist regional presidents are almost automatically candidates in 2023, although this fall the formality of the process must be fulfilled.

Differences between autonomies

However, not everyone has the same mattress of security. page, for example, has 19 seats in a Parliament of 33 deputies, for the 10 of the PP and the four that obtained Cs. But United We Can not feel and it is likely that the oranges, as has happened in the previous elections, either disappear or achieve a pyrrhic representation. In other words, it is essential for Page to preserve his absolute majority against PP-Vox. Stick (34 minutes) and UP (4) are far ahead of PP (20) and Cs (7) in Extremadura.

The differences, therefore, will be more adjusted for Puig (who has seen his Compromís partner live his lowest moment), Lambán -The PP could win, but it could only add with Vox, because the PAR repudiates the extreme right and is part of the quadripartite, with the PSOE, Chunta and Podemos-, Armengol either chivite (In Navarra it is not clear how the PP and UPN and their split will concur). And in La Rioja the right has traditionally been very strong, and Andrew he has had internal conflicts with his own party. In the president’s team they insist, however, that she has consolidated and that the PP also won absolute majorities for a single seat. In favor of the PSOE he plays, and this is repeated in Ferraz and in the territories, his greater summation capacitybecause the popular ones, with Cs on the verge of their political death, “can only add with Vox”, which in turn scares away other regionalist formations.

That presumably greater ease of agreement of the socialists also operates in the municipal level. Of the 50 provincial capitals and two autonomous citiesthe PSOE direct right now 22, and the PP, only 12, and the rest is in the hands of other formations, including the common ones (Barcelona), ERC (Tarragona and Lleida), Junts (Girona), PNV (Bilbao, San Sebastián and Vitoria), Compromís ( València), Cs (Badajoz, Ciudad Real and Melilla), UPN (Pamplona) or IU (Zamora). In 2019, the PSOE swept the locals: it garnered 6.65 million votes (29.26%), for the 5.05 million ballots (22.23%) of the PP. Distance that the 28-M will probably be reduced.

But of those 22 capitals, the most important places are Seville, Murcia, Palma, the palms Y Valladolid. The PSOE has been suffering from a hole in the big cities for years. Hence, the priority objective for the 28-M elections is to focus on them, as Ferraz insists, because they are the ones that “make visible“A good result. Barcelona It is the city that they believe to be the closest, due to their victory in the last regional elections and the consistent advantage that all the polls show, and also due to the wear and tear of the councillor, Ada Colau. The candidate is not named. Sánchez approves that the first deputy mayor, Jaume Collboni, repeat, although he will consult with the first secretary, Salvador Illa. Minister Miquel Iceta has clearly ruled out. Reconquering Barcelona 12 years later would be an unequivocal accolade for the socialists.

Valencia it is presented as more complicated due to the greater strength of its first mayor, Joan Ribó. And the candidate is not decided either, although the PSPV bets on the number two of the City Council, Sandra Gómez. In Saragossa, won the 2019 elections the current head of Education and spokesperson for the PSOE, Pilar Alegría, but could not govern because PP and Cs allied with Vox. The mayor, Jorge Azcón, is very settled and the greatest danger for Lambán is that he competes for the regional government, although according to the calculations of the socialists he would risk the city. The PSOE has also not decided who will be its headliner in 2023.

The thermometer of Seville… or Aragon

Madrid is, as always, the black hole for socialists. They were already fourth in the last municipal. Now aspire to recover positions in the capital and in the region, where they were third in the 2021 regional elections. The party is thinking about its options, taking advantage of the erosion of the mayor, the popular José Luis Martínez-Almeida. Thus, Sánchez could confirm the current Government delegate in Madrid, Mercedes González, as the headliner for the City Council, or seek a more prominent alternative. The cartel in the Community would be the leader of the PSOE-M, Juan Lobato, although his name is not ratified, so it would be possible for the president to remove one of the two, both or neither. In the Region of Murciafief PP, would debut its new leader, Pepe Vélez.

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In Seville Y Valladolid their mayors, Antonio Muñoz (successor of Juan Espadas) and Óscar Puente, will repeat. The Andalusian capital “will be one of the symbols of the PSOE’s resistance”, it will serve to measure the temperature of the party, as is the case with Aragon, warns a territorial command. In the palmsthe current councilor, Augusto Hidalgo, will compete for the Cabildo de Gran Canaria, which could make room for the Minister of Health, Carolina Darias.

The internal process of electing candidates starts precisely in September. In those cities and communities where the PSOE governs, the mayors and presidents will repeat if they so wish, so the competition it will focus on places where the party is in opposition. And although the perspectives are not negative, a downward environment and the difficulty of reissuing the “extraordinary“Results of 2019 makes it difficult for the PSOE to trace the data of 2019, and in fact in the federations the danger of losing some mayors is recognized if the machinery is not “tightened” to the fullest. To which is added the depression in a fundamental granary , Andalusia, in which Moreno achieved a historical absolute majority on 19-J.”Nine months“, the time that remains until the elections, “is a world“, and the PSOE believes that it has room to react. The race is about to start and the battle will be hard. Very hard. Because it will be the dress rehearsal, this time, of the legislative ones.