Elections are won in the center. Each party has its trench -without it there is no party-, but in the end whoever empathizes more with the moderate voters who have no trenches wins. True, globalization has increased the exceptions. Thus, Trump and Boris Johnson won seducing with ultranationalism to worker voters in regions where employment had fallen due to relocation.
for years Spain is divided into two blocks. In 2019 the PSOE won -twice- because it attracted the centrist electorate in which Pablo Casado, with a ‘right-wing’ speech, liked less. But now, according to three surveys published this Monday -that of EL PERIÓDICO, that of ‘El País’ and that of ‘El Mundo’- the PP would win the elections. By three points: 29.8% to 26.9% in that of EL PERIÓDICO, by slightly less in that of ‘El País’ and by more than six in that of ‘El Mundo’. But all three agree on one thing: the PSOE loses voters from the center that are passed to the PP. There are about 500,000 voters who change their ballot.
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Because? One, Feijóo does not arouse passions, but it has fewer edges than Casado. It is new, less Aznar and more Galician. Two, Sánchez has the wear and tear of very complicated years due to the pandemic and the crisis of the war in Ukraine. Three, share government with Podemos, which always send radical messages and it is not in tune with Europe, it distances him from the quiet electorate. Even more than external allies (Bildu) who, whatever they say, do not ridicule the president from the same table of the Council of Ministers. Four, the vast majority of the centrist Cs voters go to the PP and very few to the PSOE. Fifth, yes, the polls say that Feijóo could not govern without Vox, but that is a future and the dependence of Sánchez on Podemos a daily reality. The Vox thing should weigh less for that between 6% and 12% of citizens who voted for Sánchez in 1919 and who now lean towards Feijóo.
The elections in Spain are won, yes, with the trench… but also with the center. Has Sanchez forgotten?