the PP will win the elections in the Valencian Community on May 28. Almost entirely engulfs Ciudadanos, which is far from the electoral bar of 5%. However, the Botànic coalition will resist. For the minimum But it will hold. These are the main conclusions of the Invest Group survey for the Prensa Ibérica newspapers in the Valencian Community (Levante-EMV, Información de Alicante and Mediterráneo-El Periódico de Castellón) after interviewing by telephone 1,500 people in the three provinces between 2 and on the 11th of this month of May.
The study responds to some of the great keys of this campaign. Thus, Valencian politics will continue to be one of blocks, right and left, despite the advance of the two great traditional parties, PP and PSPV-PSOE, which are still far from an absolute majority. But the difference between one ideological group and another is minimal. There had never been such a tight forecast. A single seat advantage for the Botànic parties: 50 compared to 49, according to the poll.
There emerges another essential key: participation, which the study places above 71.5%. If it were lower than 68%, he specifies, the majority could turn around and be for the sum of PP and Vox. The key to this decisive seat would be in the province of Valencia. One of the main reasons for this close result would be that the extreme right exceeds Compromís in vote estimates, although they may have the same number of deputies due to the lower penetration of Vox in Valencia. Finally, Unides Podem holds solidly above 5%, with a forecast of 6.7% of the ballots.
The first headline produced by the combination of all these factors is that the PP recovers the position of first force in the Valencian Community that it lost in 2019. The formation of Carlos Mazon it would be the most voted in the three provinces (more than 33% of the votes) and would rise to 36 deputies, almost double the number it had in this legislature (19).
Citizens do not enter
The growth is produced mainly by the collapse of Ciudadanos, which falls to an estimated vote of 2.2%, far from the 5% barrier that gives entry to the Corts. The formation thus passes in four years from 18 seats to nothing.
The Socialists progress compared to 2019 and are above 27% in vote (23.8% in the last regional ones). Thus, they would go from 27 to a range between 29 and 31 deputies. The PSPV of Ximo Puig advances, therefore, but the same does not happen with the other formations of the Botànic.
Compromís remains at a vote estimate of 12.2% (16.4% in 2019) according to the Invest Group survey and would thus fall to 13 or 14 seats (it currently has 17).
For its part, Unides Podem resists as a parliamentary force, but the forecast it obtains is between 6 and 7 deputies (it achieved 8 in 2019). The ‘purple’ formation, however, has a better forecast now than last October. One factor to consider is that during the sample period it was revealed that the vice-president of the Government, Yolanda Diazwill support the Valencian coalition candidateHector Illueca, in an act in Alicante.
Vox, third force in votes
On the contrary, the extreme right increases its parliamentary representation and rises from ten to between 13 and 14 seats in the Corts. It would be the third force in voting, with an estimate slightly higher than that of Compromís, which would place it between 12.3 and 12.6% of the ballots.
The resulting panorama is tremendously tight and complex, in such a way that a handful of votes can alter the bloc that will win. The fundamental piece in the final composition will be participation, notes the study. The result of vox (13 or 14 deputies) would be the determining variable of the final sum. With fourteen there would be a majority on the right. With thirteen, the government is from the left. This deputy, adds the consultant, is played in the province of Valencia and it would be in competition with PSPV and Unides Podem. In Alicante does not provide for seat disputes. In Castellón, the seat that would be in the ballot is between Socialists and Compromís, which does not affect the final sum.
What element is it that can tilt that decisive seat to one side or the other? The participation. Invest Group’s work indicates that with a high abstention rate (voting rate less than 68%), the right would prevail with 50 deputies in total. This is because of the greater security in the decision to vote in the sociologically right-wing population, he argues.
And vice versa, if this variable is above the aforementioned percentage, the Botànic would guarantee a third Government.
This second scenario is the one predicted by the polling company. The analysis of the poll data and the historical series in regional elections allows us to estimate a level of participation of 71.5% in the next elections, he concludes. In the regional ones of 2019 it was 75.8%, but then they coincided with the general ones in a context of strong polarization. In those of 2015, where the same voting scenario occurred together with the municipal ones, the voting rate was 71.1%. And a very similar percentage occurred in 2011: 71.5%.
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In the end, if the participation is between 68 and 69%, or between this percentage and 71.5%, as expected, or if it is higher than this, the Botànic would prevail. Therefore, in three of the four participation scenarios that are proposed, the majority would continue in the block of the left.
Contrast with valuation
The results offered by the electoral barometer contrast with the assessment made by citizens of the management of the Council in a legislature marked by the pandemic and the economic difficulties caused by the Ukrainian war. As this newspaper published yesterday in the first installment of the sample, the Botànic score has grown compared to that of 2019: 44.1% have a favorable opinion, six points more than before the last elections. However, the result of the elections would be much tighter for the left. One possible explanation is the influence of the Spanish political context.