The PP would clearly win the generals and would touch the absolute majority with Vox

So much so that it is not guaranteed right now, which would provide the PSOE the possibility of seeking support for Sánchez to try to continue at Moncloa. In fact, the Socialists recorded their best result in the last year in this poll, which would endorse Sánchez’s commitment not to wait until the end of the year to vote. Despite the success of Feijóo and the blow to Sánchez on 28-M, this photograph of a national political board surrounded by uncertainties is very similar to the one reflected in the previous poll, three months ago.

The wave of conservative voting that has wrested almost all regional and municipal power from the left would be reproduced in the general elections, giving Feijóo a clear victory but leaving him at the mercy of Vox. The PP would win the elections with 30.7% of the votes and 126-132 seats (now it has 89), one point and two more seats than in March. The PSOE would stay with 27.6% of the votes and 104-110 deputies (today it has 120), seven tenths and two more deputies than three months ago.

Feijóo’s three-point advantage over Sánchez has not changed since the previous survey, but if we look at longer-term trends, while the popular ones are one point below a year ago, the socialists did not obtain a vote estimate above 27% since November 2021. The field work of the survey was carried out, based on 1,003 interviews, from May 30 to June 1, just after the turn on the municipal and regional political map.

This change of cycle demonstrated the importance that it will have for the options of governing of the PP and PSOE the strength achieved by its natural partners, that is, Vox, Add and Can. And in that, too, the right is ahead. Vox would achieve 14.6% of the votes and 42-45 seats (now it has 52), two tenths and two seats less than in March. In the first GESOP survey since the emergence of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz’s platform would obtain 13% of the votes and 33-36 deputies, sinking Podemos to 2% of the ballots and 2-3 parliamentarians, 10 points and 30 seats less than in March. This means that, despite the collapse of Podemos, Sumar’s landing would boost the left of the PSOE, whose space could go from the 35 deputies that United Podemos has today alone to a maximum of 39 in the event that they attend separately.

Consequently, the right-wing block would oscillate between 168 and 177 seats and the left-wing block would move between 139 and 149 deputies. If PP and Vox do not reach the 176 that give an absolute majority in Congress, Sánchez would still need the support of a good number of parties to attempt the investiture. Among other reasons, because ERC has lost steam in favor of Junts after the bump in the municipal elections. Both forces would tie with 2% of the vote and 8-9 seats, but while the Republicans have lost half a point and two seats since March, the post-convergents have won one tenth and one seat. Even if Esquerra and JxCat agreed to invest Sánchez, he would reach a maximum of 167 votes, still insufficient to neutralize the possible sum of PP and Vox.

The survey once again highlights the contrast between PP and PSOE when it comes to recovering the vote lost with the emergence of Podemos, citizens and Vox. Feijóo would absorb one in four Vox voters in 2019 and half of the Cs voters. In fact, the PP and the ultras are the formations with the highest vote fidelity and the least undecided. Instead, the fragmentation of the left into three brands due to the lack of agreement between Sumar and Podemos the number of undecided progressive voters skyrockets and prevents the growth of the left, since Díaz attracts half of the voters of Podemos and half of those of Más País, but the former have 20% of their undecided electorate and the latter, 28%.

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The Socialists, for their part, resist well because they retain 65% of their voters and they fish for two out of 10 voters of Más País and 17% of ERC voters. His main flight of votes continues to be in the direction of the PP (8.3%), although it has fallen three points since March. But another has appeared in the direction of Sumar (6.2%) that leaves practically without effect the 7.6% of Podemos voters who would now choose the PSOE ballot. The outcome of the negotiations between Sumar and Podemos, the undecided on the left and, above all, the undecided of Cs (35%), who is not running in the elections, will settle a good part of Sánchez’s survival options.

The result of 28-M has expanded the perception that the PP will also win the general elections. 68.5% of Spaniards believe that Feijóo will win, 22 points more than in March. Only 14.6% think that Sánchez will win, 16 points less. Despite having to vote in the summer, three out of four interviewees take their participation for granted and only 6% rule out going to vote on 23-J. But the lefts have two reasons for concern: the right-wing electorate is more mobilized and the young are less so than the older ones. The difference in the intention to participate is 25 points between the highest and lowest age group.