In the PP of Madrid they recognize that in the next electoral appointment the absolute majority that they pursue will be “very complicated”
The regional elections of next May 28 will be very different from those of May 2021 for Isabel Diaz Ayuso. The context will be very different, with a pandemic that has been left behind, and the approach of the parties, too. In the PP they are aware that the president of the regional Executive no longer appears alone against the Government of Pedro Sánchez, as he wanted to point out in his last campaign, but that the citizens will find themselves at the polls the mayors ballot and that, both the PP and the PSOE recognize, will necessarily influence the electoral result.
Sources close to the Madrid president acknowledge that, unlike the impulse that the electoral repetition of 4-M brought to Ayuso, in the next appointment the absolute majority they are after will be “very complicated”. In Sol they are aware that the context of just a year and a half ago, with an absolute confrontation with Sánchez and with Pablo Iglesias as a direct adversary, the political framework that covered the campaign with the slogan “communism or freedom & rdquor; It served to defend his management in the pandemic, but in six months that framework will hardly be repeated.
Two ballots in front of one
The towns in the south of the Community will be key to this result. They understand the same sources of the Madrid PP that some socialist mayors of municipalities in the region’s red belt “are very consolidated” and it will be difficult for them to take at the same time “the ballot of their socialist mayor and that of Ayuso for the regional presidency& rdquor ;. Something that did happen in May 2021: many PSOE voters decided to bet on the popular leader. “But they were only regional ones. They didn’t have to vote for their mayor and that now changes everything. Those who vote again for their socialist mayor will probably also vote for the left in the regional elections& rdquor ;, they reflect.
It is the same observation made by the socialists in the region, who believe that next May it is no longer possible to present a campaign as a “referendum or plebiscite“in which you can only choose between Ayuso and Sánchez. The PP will once again take the votes of Citizens in the autonomousas happened in May 2021, and it will do the same in the upcoming municipal elections, acknowledge sources from the PP and the socialist formation, but the latter add that what they perceive with their internal surveys is that “the PP does not carry the vote of the mayors who remain stable. And we know this and they know it“, they say in reference to the PP. “The normal thing”, and what they deduce from their data, is that in the municipalities where the management has been good, or at least there have not been major problems, “there is no vote of punishment”.
Internal context of the national PP
For Ayuso, the context within the PP also changes. In those elections, the Madrid president broke the scheme of coalitions with Ciudadanos that the popular needed to govern in different autonomous communities and that gave a boost to her role as regional leader of the party. But despite governing alone, today she still needs the support of Vox. If she fails to retain at least the votes cast by supporters of the PSOE, she will hinder her race towards the absolute majority that her comrade in the ranks, Juanma Moreno, did achieve in Andalusia. For this reason, in the hard core of Ayuso they begin to launch the idea that if they do not achieve the absolute, what they will need is to reissue what was achieved a year and a half ago or, at least, get very close to those numbers.
In that way, they aim at the PP, it will be key also trim Vox props, with whom the relationship has been strained in recent weeks in the Madrid Assembly on account of regional budgets. There they understand that there is room for voters who supported the ultra “to return to the house of the PP& rdquor; and the latest blunders by Rocío Monasterio’s party (such as registering her amendments to the Budgets late) they believe will help this challenge.
Health against the national discourse
The national policywith the evolution of the controversies around the crimes of seditionthe embezzlement or the Punishment that the Government wants to impose on the members of the CGPJ that block the appointments of the Constitutional Court may also be a weapon for her campaign next May, but the president has another issue of regional management, the healthwhich can also set the pace for you.
In Sunafter days in which they were not clear about how the strike by health professionals would develop, they are convinced that they have found an element that allows them to consolidate the idea that the strike is only a political issue: the audios of a doctor from the strike committee which ensured that the pressure had to be prolonged and maintained until the elections. But in the PSOE they believe that the health crisis will not prevent their mayors from reaping good results and that, on the other hand, it can negatively affect Ayuso.
struggle of the left
Despite the fears of the popular, it is also true that there are sectors of the party who consider that andhe weight of the socialist mayors will affect only the fight between PSOE and Más Madrid to consolidate themselves as the leading force of the opposition. Juan Lobato, general secretary of the PSOE and candidate for the Madrid Assembly, rises in voting intentions, they point out both in his formation and in the PP. The socialists have a municipal weight that Más Madrid does not have, they explain on both sides, and that will have a positive impact on the regional PSOE. The key to this struggle on the left, the Socialists point out, is what will happen in the capital, where the weight that Minister Reyes Maroto will have as candidate and where Más Madrid is established as an urban formation.
polls in the south
Alcorcon, Fuenlabrada and Getafe There are some municipalities in the south where the socialist cartel resists. In them, as in Móstoles, Leganés or Rivas Vaciamadrid the PP improves the results compared to the 2019 municipal elections because it incorporates the votes that Ciudadanos loses, but these are votes that Ayuso already added to his list in the 2021 elections, therefore, although they may cause a change of municipal government, not necessarily they will mean an improvement of the popular ones at the regional level.
The latest survey carried out by Gad3 on Getafe He points out that the socialist mayor Sara Hernández will improve her results and will have the option of reissuing the pact with Podemos and adding more than the rights. In fuenlabrada, Javier Ayala was the most voted mayor in the region in 2019 and nothing indicates that the popular candidate, Noelia Núñez, is going to cause a turnaround in this town. In alcorcon, the mayoress Natalia de Andrés had passed all the internal procedures of the PSOE to be re-elected as a candidate, but she has decided to take a step back once the Justice has issued her disqualification from the management of companies for considering her guilty of that municipal land company enter bankruptcy proceedings. That step backwards, they point out in the socialist environment, only occurs because the popular candidate, Antonio González Terol, is still far from achieving the mayoralty, and the PSOE does not want to run the risk of wear and tear due to disqualification. In Mostoles and LeganesAlso according to Gad3, the PP doubles its results at the expense of Ciudadanos and the PSOE loses several mayors, but the change of both mayoralties, only possible with the addition of Vox, would not necessarily mean more votes for Ayuso compared to 2021.