The first indications seem to support the experts who warned of the (unwanted) consequences that the housing law could have and the confusion surrounding the regulation real estate that lives the last months. In the absence of new official data on the casuistry of Barcelona (the latest from Incasòl correspond to the first quarter of 2023), various indicators to which EL PERIÓDICO has had access point to a slowdown in the signing of rental contracts in the city. reflect conjunctural behaviors of both tenants as well as owners. On the one hand, some residents they put their search for a new home on hold to get rid of paying agency fees -as dictated by the new law- or to check if the prices moderate when the Government accepts the declaration of a stressed area for the Catalan capital and other municipalities promoted by the Generalitat. On the other hand, many owners have postponed their decision to rent or sell in case the general elections bring new legal changes.
The recent Incasòl price report already recorded a drop in the number of leases signed up to March, given the dwindling supply and the uncertainties that plagued the sector. But the last few weeks have already been marked by the approval of the law. In this sense, the Col·legi d’Administradors de Finques de Barcelona-Lleida (CAFBL) provides the first fresh data, while one of the services they provide to their associates is the management of the surety deposit. In Last June they processed 194, compared to 338 in the same month of 2022. And while May was also down, at 320 versus 385 last year, it was an uptick from April, attributed to a sprint of landlord-inspired signings ahead of the law. Your president, Llorenc Vinasmaintains that the doubts of owners and tenants have clearly slowed down operations.
Transfer to temporary rental
subscribes it Carles Sala, head of the legal area of COAPI-AIC, who reports that the APIS group in Barcelona has perceived a situation of ‘wait and see’ (waiting for events) among their clients. “Many owners are pending a sale decision” depending on whether or not Barcelona is declared a stressed area, or whether the housing law continues under the current terms. The expert, after surveying some of the main operators in the city, explains that in the last two months they have perceived a 20 to 30% drop in conventional rental operations.
It is even more forcefully about the increase of questions of owners on how switch to temporary contracts (less than 11 months, outside the regulation), or on the conditions for hypothetical sales instead of leases, by small investors or homeowners who are running out of lease these days.
Sala qualifies that not everything is attributable to the housing law, because there was already a previous climate of “legal uncertainty” in the face of successive changes and measures, such as increases in the CPI limited to 2%. It is also necessary to consider the effect of the extension of three (plus one extension) years of rental in the contracts signed until the end of 2018, compared to those of five (plus one) in force since 2019 (for natural persons), with the changes introduced in the LAU. It implies that since the last short contracts (and their extensions) have recently ended, the natural supply rotation stops for a while. Something that will last until the first longest contracts signed since 2019 come to an end.
Play it safe: more contract renewals
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The circumstance arises, both sources point out, that many landlords are “renewing contracts” with the tenants they already had if they are satisfied with them and reach agreements Price. They thus avoid signing a new contract in this uncertain period. Although for now there is no limitation on the prices of new contracts, renewing seeks to benefit both parties, taking into account that any move implies expenses and that the owners also usually have to make reforms and wait a while before relocating the house in the market, underlines Óscar Gorgues, manager of the Barcelona Chamber of Urban Property. This employer is one of those who will present allegations against the declaration of a stressed area in the Catalan capital, considering that the methodology used is not objective.
“The loss of stock It will happen sooner or later”, predicts Sala, with the experience of the price limitation that the Government temporarily applied until the court overturned the measure, and knowing how landlords behave in situations of uncertainty. In fact These days, in addition to answering questions about candidates to leave the traditional rental market, they do so about the procedural law (due to risks of non-payment and others). “If the stressed area is applied to all of Barcelona, it will have a lethal effect on the market “, maintains.
A study forecasts a 12.6% drop in rental supply in the Catalan capital
A report of Tecnocasa and Pompeu Fabra University on the housing market, points out that in the case of Barcelona the housing law may imply the loss of 12.5% of the rental stock, a total of 24,090 fewer properties. This figure would be above the state average, and in the case of the Eixample district it would reach 16%, which would aggravate the current lack of flats for rent. They attribute it to “legal uncertainty” and the new law, which will lead many owners to look for other business options.