One more time, the polls failed in Argentina. The feared avalanche of the extreme right at the polls did not take place in the predicted terms. The Peronist Sergio Massa came first in the presidential elections by obtaining the 36.19% of the votes. The libertarian Javier Milei had a great performance, although far from the polls’ predictions. Received 30.20% of the votes, very close to what he had achieved in the primaries of August 13. Conservative Patricia Bullrich was left out of the second round on November 19. She garnered 23.7% of the adhesions. A new and unexpected scenario opens up for the runoff.
The extreme right and the traditional right gather 53% of the votes. It is impossible for them to be completely captured by Milei. Days of feverish conversations begin. Massa, a seasoned negotiator, will try to guarantee the support of the moderate sectors that had supported Bullrich. The former president is expected Mauricio Macri give his endorsement to the libertarian, which would immediately blow up the Together for Change coalition.
The governor of the province of Córdoba, Juan Schiaretti, from the center-right, achieved almost seven points. The destination of those votes will also affect the result of 19N.
The scrutiny was awaited with enormous nervousness and the fear in the air of a catastrophe so announced. The prediction has come face to face with a reality shaped by various factors, not least of which was Massa’s campaign and the measures he took in his capacity as Minister of Economy. Massa eliminated income taxes, benefiting the middle sectors, and also the one that affects popular consumption, the VAT. His victory bordered on a miracle with an inflation of 140% of which he is both an art and a part.
The fear of a leap into the void
And if that happened it is due to the convergence of several reasons. Milei caused fear with strongly misogynistic sayings that took away the preference of the Argentinian women. It provoked indignation when Diana Mondino, who sounded like his Foreign Minister, mocked the sovereign claims to Great Britain of the Malvinas Islands, the object of a war in 1982. At the same time, the economist’s insults to the Pope Francisco and the call in those around him to suspend diplomatic relations with the Vatican sparked discomfort in the Catholic electorate. TO In his own way, the pontiff has been another of the winners of these elections.
There has been no less apprehension generated by his far-right proposal to dollarize the economy, liberalize the sale of organs and the purchase of weapons. Milei’s emotional instability, known as “el loco”, the hate speech, which included denialism of the magnitude of human rights violations during the last dictatorship (1976-83), had its effect. But, above all, it was the horror of a leap into the void and being worse than at present also played its role, which determined the electoral behavior of millions of citizens. Finally, Massa played Emmanuel Macron and managed to ensure that Marine Le-Pen’s aversion allowed him victory.
Lula’s help and the reaction of Peronism
Massa’s campaign changed drastically since the primaries due to a group of 20 Brazilians sent by Lula da Silva. The same strategy of the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) was strictly applied in this contest. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of the retired captain, who came to Buenos Aires to accompany the consecration of Milei in a first shift, found the scene in his country repeated.
In the primaries, 69% of the electoral roll voted. This Sunday, 74% of people able to vote went to the polls. That meant 1.4 million citizens who influenced the scrutiny. The Peronist militancy reacted in the face of adversity, despite deep dissatisfaction with the situation.
The gravitation of the province of Buenos Aires
The Buenos Aires government Axel Kicillof He was re-elected with 45.12% of the votes. “Freedom is achieved with equal rights,” he said on his triumphant night. His victory, in the midst of dramatic situations of poverty and insecurity, has had the character of a feat that allowed Massa to increase his number of votes. “We need Massa to be president.”
The discussion about the past has not been unrelated to what happened at the polls. “This vote means dictatorship never again,” Kicillof said in reference to the close defense of the repressors by Victoria Villarruel, the candidate for vice president of the far right. The governor recalled the importance of the victory after four decades of the recovery of democracy. And he thanked the vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner for “his permanent support” despite having gone through an attempt on his life. “She never called us not to fall into resentment. She is an example for those who fall into violence.” Peronism in turn recovered in other provinces where it had been defeated in regional elections.
The dollar and Chinese aid
In recent days, Massa managed to contain the rise in the price of the dollar, which had risen dramatically since August 14. China has also played a role in keeping the economy from blowing up. On the eve of the elections, Beijing announced the expansion of a swap for 6.5 billion dollars. This is a type of contingent loan that, although it has no impact on the Central Bank’s international reserves, does affect what is known as net reserves, which are those calculated by the market.
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If Peronism is finally defeated in the runoff, it will have the capacity in Congress to block many of Milei’s initiatives.