In Bangladesh, banners and posters are already hanging everywhere on the streets. Voters in Bhutan are preparing for the second round of national elections. Elsewhere in South Asia, elections are looming in neighboring India and Pakistan – and then there are also polls in a series of countries further east. These are often elections that can transcend national interests, due to the growing role of Asia and the Pacific in the world.
Countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, but also Indonesia, are playing an increasingly important role in climate negotiations, in international trade and in production chains. There are major international concerns about the position of Taiwan, which goes to the polls on January 13. The outcome of the vote of more than a billion people could therefore also have consequences for the rest of the world.
But the fact that these citizens vote does not mean that democracy is in good shape in their country. Most countries in Asia have concerns regarding human rights and democracy. So states the Swedish V-Dem Institute, which monitors the state of democracy worldwide, that 48 percent of the population in Asia and the Pacific lives in an ‘electoral autocracy’: although multi-party elections are held, there are insufficient democratic freedoms to truly call it a free country.
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Expected turnout this year is around two billion voters. And at stake: democracy
Closed autocracy
The other large group, 41 percent, even lives in a ‘closed autocracy’, i.e. without elections – like China. All in all, “nearly nine out of ten people” in the region are deprived of some or all democratic rights and freedoms.
The leaders in the region are not impressed by such alarming definitions, as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh shows recently in an interview with Time noted: “Democracy has a different definition that varies from country to country.”
It is already certain that Hasina will win the elections in Bangladesh again this Sunday. She has been in power since 2009 – although international observers questioned the validity of the 2014 and 2018 elections. Upon her rise, Hasina received support from the West because she helped Bangladesh move forward economically and promised to push back Islamic extremism. Her popularity is now waning, due to economic mismanagement and the strict hand with which she and her party govern. Activists, trade union leaders and critical journalists are arrested, Hasina placed loyalists in important positions in the bureaucracy and the judiciary. There is a lot of corruption. The opposition has gained support since the last elections, but is also boycotting the elections this year.
Turnout may be much lower, and under such circumstances the election results may provoke more anger than has previously occurred. Analysts from the think tank International Crisis Group provide even possible outbreaks of violence.
There could also be anger in Pakistan about the field of participants. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was ousted in 2022 after losing the approval of the military elite, has been in detention since last year. But it is still very popular, especially among young people. The Electoral Commission declined last week to receive the paperwork for his candidacy. His exclusion could lead to protests around the February elections.
In Indonesia, President Joko Widodo, in power since 2014, may not run for a new term. But he brought his son into play as the running mate of the defense secretary, who is now a presidential candidate. Through Widodo’s brother-in-law, who is also chief justice, the constitutionally stipulated minimum age for candidates was cleverly circumvented. Human rights organizations are concerned about democratic erosion in the countryand guaranteeing the rights of LGBTI people, oppression in West Papua, freedom of religion, and problems surrounding land ownership.
By far the most important and populous country in the region where elections will be held this year is India, sometime between April and May – the exact dates are still to be determined. Elections take several weeks and the organization is a mega project. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is popular for major infrastructure projects and prosperity development. Both his Hindu nationalism – the pursuit of India as a Hindu state – and his own personality provide him with a strong image. The chance that the 73-year-old will miss his third five-year term is currently nil. Although the opposition has united last year, it does not yet have a convincing programme.
Seen in this light, Indian politics is stable. But here too there are concerns about the slide domestic democratic and liberal values. The organization Freedom House calls India “partly free”. In recent years, the repression of NGOs and journalists has increased, and religious minorities have been marginalized. Modi dismisses such international reports as plots to undermine India.
He likes to call his country ‘Mother Democracy’, a term with which India can well contrast itself with that other great power in Asia; China. The competition between the two countries has long been a source of tension in the region: India is booming economically and has surpassed China in population. A border conflict is on the rise and both countries are expanding their armies. This creates a strategic competition, with the two countries trying to expand their sphere of influence. Because the West’s international relations with China are very tense, India has managed to position itself as a strategic partner for the West in recent years.
Diplomatic relations
That dynamic will play out in the individual elections this year. Bhutan, which has only been a parliamentary democracy since 2008, will hold the second round of national elections in January. Until recently, the country had no diplomatic relations with China at all, but meetings suddenly took place at the end of last year. This could warn India, Bhutan’s only other neighbor and major provider of development aid, that it also needs to strengthen ties with the small Himalayan state.
Last in this year’s series of elections is Sri Lanka, where citizens will elect a new president in September. That country, whose economy collapsed a year and a half ago, is heavily dependent on both India and China as lenders. In fact, candidates cannot afford to turn away from either.
In Taiwan, where voting will take place on January 13, there is no tug-of-war between India and China at all: there China is trying to gain even more control. Beijing is trying to influence the campaign on the island with fake news and economic sanctions to prevent a ‘separatist’ from being elected president there on January 13. The main candidate who advocates an independent course, ‘separate’ from China, is the current vice president: Lai Ching-te of the Democratic-Progressive Party (DPP). His two opponents actually want to get closer to the People’s Republic.
Taiwan is now known as a free democracy, but one that is increasingly under pressure as the power struggle between China and the West increases. The election race is tight, and for voters and candidates the relationship with China is of course not the only issue. But the rest of the world is watching with suspicion.