Accustomed to dealing with the escaping dollar, the rise in inflation or the effects of the drought, it seems a rarity and in a context overwhelmed by short-termism, the provisional figures from the 2022 National Census were few, but forceful in terms of marking trends that will affect the economy in less time than imagined. Aging population with increased life expectancyincreasing labor mobility or the window of opportunity that the demographic structure still presents are just some of these factors that present an enormous challenge for three dimensions of economic policy: the fiscal balance, the red pension and health spending.
The numbers
Almost six months from what was announced in due course, they already produced a first correction of a figure that had drawn the attention of specialists: the total population last year amounted to 46.04 million inhabitants, almost one million less than what was announced last August ( 47.33 million) and that would have shown, surprisingly, a change in the demographic growth trend between 2010 and 2022. Thus, it gives a 14.8% total variation, which means a rate of 1.2% per year instead of the 1.45% that would have meant the confirmation of failures Results released in August. The delay, in addition to suspending it, corrected the data but also lengthened the terms in which the precise population radiography will be obtained.
However, what is known serves to reaffirm trends that have been insinuating themselves. The economist and demographer Raphael Roffman warns that in addition to the certainty that the numbers for La Matanza were wrong in the 2010 count and the unknown of what happened to make the first data have to be corrected, the growth rate shows stability in line with what is already it had evolved between the 2001 and 2010 Census (1.13% per year). “Before, Argentina showed very different values to the rest of the region and now we are following the same trend,” says the specialist.
In this sense, it also points out that although data by age is not known now, what is available are fertility data (children per woman of childbearing age) that decreased and specifically that corresponding to adolescents, which is positive data. This fact and the extension of life expectancy (measured as life expectancy at birth, which is already over 80 years for women and 74 for men) altered the calculations of a key indicator which is the total dependency ratio (the percentage of the population under 15 years of age and over 65 over the total) that grows uninterruptedly in the long term and will find its minimum point around 2030.
The explanation is that, with fewer births, the proportion of “dependent” people in what is called the “demographic dividend” falls, but then it will increase. Some economists, such as Rofman himself, see this as an opportunity to change the job profile demanded of the population: more “care” tasks and personalized attention.
Distribution
The other inescapable data is that of regional inequality in growth. These eleven and a half years (those that elapsed between the last two censuses) seem to have marked the end of a cycle of forced urbanization towards large cities. Greater Buenos Aires, once the great magnet for internal migrations it only grew 9.5% (0.8% per year) against 17.4% (1.4% annual).
The Economist Lucas Pussettoprofessor at the IAE Business School and in the Pompeu Fabra University (Barcelona) sees this trend as a key point for economic development and the strengthening of value chains. “In Córdoba, where I live, the Census found almost 4 million, of which 1.5 million are from the capital and the rest from the interior, but that is a proportion that has changed for the first time. We still do not know how much of this transfer is due to the post-pandemic effect or due to another quality of life, ”he explains.
The fact that there have been poles of attraction for workers can be verified in the distribution of growth. The most notorious case (outside the mirage of Tierra del Fuego: 49.9% in total and 3.6% per year) It is that of the province of Neuquén. A good part of the inter-census period coincided with the productive explosion of Vaca Muerta and its inhabitants increased by 31.8% (2.4% per year), almost tripling the variation of the Buenos Aires suburbs and surpassing neighboring Río Negro (+19%).
“People go to the interior because there are more opportunities for growth, but they also live there, but they work remotely for the metropolitan area. If you see a better quality of life, you can work remotely, more free time, more access to housing, friends and family… A very good combo that has a ‘spillover’ effect on the rest of the economic activity”, he clarifies. .
The irruption of the attractiveness of the medium-sized cities of the most competitive productive enclaves is a fact to take into account, despite the fact that the export of goods and services was one of the most punished tax activities of this decade. But, perhaps boosted by the adoption of new technologies that have made it possible to separate the place of residence from that of work, they enjoy a better quality of life in aspects that have been most valued in recent years: access to green spaces, less travel time and privileged forms of healthy life.
Consequences
These tendencies may not have direct implications in the electoral discussion. But there is extra time given to think about policies before problems become emergencies. The aging of the population in the entire region but that was brought forward in Argentina, iimplies that there will be two sources of resource absorption: public health and the pension system. “How to reconcile this unavoidable jump in public spending with the demand to lower the tax pressure is the unknown to solve that in developed countries they faced it, but with a formal and much richer economy”, warns Pussetto.
In affluent Europe, the lack of employable young people was solved with the different waves of migration (first from its ex-colonies and poorer countries in the region, then from Eastern Europe) but then it stabilized. The dilemma of state intervention vs. free market will, then, have an additional restriction with the number of considerations that this qualitative change in spending will impose due to its own weight of reality. With the sole collaboration of a bad design and waste of resources, even in full force of the demographic dividend, the Argentine pension system consumes 13% of GDP for its financing. The future will impose, then, another additional rigor.
Finally, a challenging scenario is posed: corroborated the notion that “human capital” is as important, if not more, than the physical and natural resources for a rate of sustained economic development, a lower proportion of young people will entail a lower probability of generating foci of innovation and social mobility.
In an economy that shows signs of deep internal imbalances as a result of a stagnation that has been going on for half a century, these population aspects are not a detail. They constitute the basis for the elaboration of economic policies that, instead of officiating as ballasts, boost economic activity.
