Behind the scenes, there is no one from the opposition to the Government of Pere Aragones that he does not pay that, after a year of making him bite the dust in the Parliament Due to its minority in the Generalitat, the Catalan legislature no longer has direction. However, be it because dependence on other institutions strategies are tenacious or because the internal leadership is not resolved, no group dares to demand that the president tighten the red election buttonsomething that breathes oxygen into an ERC that is convinced that it will be able to approve new budgets and exhaust the mandate.
Its main rivals, PSC and Juntsapply a recipe that oscillates between unrelenting criticism and an interested hand extended to project itself as the alternative. They consider activated the countdown of the Aragonès stage in a year marked by the application of the amnesty and its effects, as well as the erosion that may arise from the management of crises such as that of the drought or educational level. This is how the opposition faces the final sprint until the Catalan elections.
Consummate the assault on the Government
There is no doubt what its main purpose is. Salvador Illa this 2024: achieve the presidency of the Generalitat. There is no survey that does not indicate him as the winner in the next elections and for the first time he has open the way of pact both with ERC and with Junts, an advantage that it did not have when it won in 2021. The divorce that is now irreversible in the independence movement has been its greatest catapult, along with the watchtower that the permanence of Pedro Sanchez in the Moncloa and his commitment to de-escalate the conflict based on dialogue and dejudicialization. Despite the little internal enthusiasm with the approval of the amnesty lawthe party is cohesive and focused on erode Aragonès in the Parliament at the expense of crisis management such as the drought, although conditioned by the fact that ERC votes are essential for the PSOE in Congress. Hence, on the one hand, Illa acts as the scourge of the Government and, on the other, does not stop reaching out to move forward. key laws such as budgets. A congress is planned in March in which the PSC will update its strategy to conquer the Government.
The electoral results of 23-J once again put Together in the center of the political board, thus mitigating the loss of institutional power that they had suffered since the departure of the Government and that aggravated the post-municipal pacts. However, the challenge for next year is huge. The match of Carles Puigdemont you need to sell that your negotiation with the PSOE It is the ‘good’ one and it bears more fruit than ERC. If not, the electoral bill could be high, even more so if a fourth pro-independence space ends up participating in the Catalan elections with the unilateral route by flag or the extreme right party Aliança Catalana. Although this will also depend on whether, when the time comes, the amnesty is already in force and whether Puigdemont decides to be a candidate and how the internal crisis among the sector he leads is resolved. Jordi Turull and the one who closes ranks with Laura Borras.
In the Parliament, their bet is to continue ignoring the dialogue table and the ERC pacts with the Government, in addition to blame poor management in the Generalitat. For months now, the post-convergents have claimed themselves as an alternative in competition with the PSC and that is why this time they are playing the game of negotiating the Aragonès budgets. However, Junts has a lot of fabric to cutstarting with putting the internal order in order, to be prepared to undergo the examination of the ballot boxes, which is why it needs time.
Overcome the cordon sanitaire
Three years after his strong emergence into the Parliament – with 11 deputies -, Vox has not been able to approve any initiative. His far-right speech, linking immigration and crime, denying sexist violence and calling the climate emergency “false delusions”; has kept them cornered in the Catalan Chamber. The big question in the next Catalan elections is whether their ineffectiveness in Catalonia makes them reach their ceiling – or even deflates them – or if their speech continues to resonate with the electorate.
The objective of the CUPafter the poor results of the municipal elections and having been left out of Congress, is get out of the corner and stop questioning only a minority. In the short term, this is reflected in their attempt to enter the budget negotiation equation. Unlike last year, when they directly ruled themselves out, this time they have transferred their demands to the Government, although there is total skepticism that they can reach an agreement. More in the long term, the internal debate has been reopened – within the framework of the process they call Garbí– about what its role should be within the institutions and what alliance policy it should maintain. A discussion that the formation has carried on since its beginnings and that was especially evident at the beginning of the legislature.
Have the key to alliances
Consolidated at the head of En Comú Podem in the Parliament, the Jéssica Albiach’s challenge It is to have the key so that the alliances in the Parliament shift towards the left and Junts is left completely out of the equation. This is what the Comuns demand every other day from Aragonès, whom they accuse of leading a ‘sociovergent’ agenda. The threat of do not support the next budgets has been going ‘in crescendo’ in recent weeks. The second place obtained in the general elections in Catalonia compensated for the bitter result of the municipal elections, in which Ada Colau lost the mayorship of Barcelona without having managed to enter the government of Jaume Collboni. The rupture between Sumar and Podemos also has an echo in Catalonia, where the purples, who claim to feel “belittled” within the coalition, do not ensure that the alliance is maintained.
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After the electoral disaster of 2023, the six deputies who Citizens still in Parliament are his last stronghold to try to convince the electorate that his project still makes sense. The plan is go back to the origins and look for PSC voter upset with amnesty and the pacts with Puigdemont. This means having a tough speech against the independence movement and linguistic immersion, but marking distances with the PP and especially with Vox, especially on issues such as immigration or security. The upcoming European and Catalan elections – which they maintain that they will run no matter what – will be decisive for the future of the party.
Get rid of the “tutelages” of Madrid
After a year of internal crisis within the PP of CataloniaTheir leader, Alejandro Fernandez, It looks to be managed to stabilize the fire. It cannot be considered extinct, but Genoa’s plans to relieve it – which were clearly evident with the offer to go to Congress – have, at the very least, been put on hold. Now, Fernández aspires to free himself from the “tutelages” of Madrid and implement his strategy, which involves having a very harsh speech against the independence movement to eat up the space of Vox and what remains of Ciutadans, and get away from the lurches of Genoa with Junts. The objective is to reach the next Catalans with enough strength to sell like the ‘useful vote’ of Spanishism in Catalonia, despite currently occupying the last place in the Parliament.