They had one year to prevent a repeat of the shameful image of asylum seekers who had to sleep outside the gate of the overcrowded application center in Ter Apel. But the ministers who deal with migration had already tempered expectations last month. In addition to the domain of State Secretary Eric van der Burg (Asylum, VVD), this subject is also Chefsache for Prime Minister Mark Rutte. With an expected influx of seventy thousand asylum seekers, the prime minister “could not guarantee that no one will have to sleep in the grass this summer”.
On Thursday, the dreaded message indeed arrived: for the first time this year, the application center no longer had enough beds to accommodate all asylum seekers. Once again, the cabinet is dependent on palliative measures. For example, an event hall in Assen will become available as a ‘waiting room’ for Ter Apel from 1 June. At the same time, there was another setback this week: the IND warned that its maximum capacity has also been reached, which means that asylum seekers will have to wait even longer for a decision on their application. The asylum procedure is stalled.
Since last summer, Van der Burg has been working on a structural solution in the form of the distribution law. This law, also called ‘compulsory law’ by opponents, was supposed to oblige municipalities to receive asylum seekers. That law should have entered into force in January, but Van der Burg always failed to get the entire coalition to agree to his law. On Friday, the State Secretary reported after the Council of Ministers that the coalition parties had nevertheless agreed on the distribution law.
His own VVD in particular was disturbing. The party has difficulty with the obligation to municipalities, but is also critical of the high numbers of asylum seekers. In November last year, critical VVD members agreed to the law under heavy pressure from Rutte, in exchange for the Prime Minister’s promise that he would personally commit to limiting the influx of (asylum) migrants.
Was that a best efforts obligation or a result promise? Critical party members see it in any case as the second: according to it AD has a group of VVD members recently wrote in a letter that Rutte must fulfill his promise.
Border controls
It’s not that Rutte didn’t do his best. In February of this year, a special EU summit on migration was organized at the request of the Dutch Prime Minister and his Austrian counterpart Karl Nehammer. There the emphasis was on improving border controls and returning failed asylum seekers. The Netherlands also wants to focus on asylum procedures at the external border of the EU.
Read also: At EU summit, the Netherlands is committed to returning migrants
Moreover, Rutte has sought rapprochement with his radical right-wing counterpart Giorgia Meloni. Traditionally, Dutch and Italian views on migration are far apart: the Netherlands complains that Italy sends migrants on, Italy believes that it is being abandoned as a border country. Rutte and Meloni are now emphasizing their joint interest in reducing the number of migrants to Europe. Italy is open to better screening incoming asylum seekers itself, if there is ultimately solidarity from EU countries further afield.
But despite all his efforts, there is no simple button you can press to get fewer asylum seekers to the Netherlands. There are policy, geographic and geopolitical reasons for this.
Firstly, after years of meetings, Europe is only making slow progress in introducing a common migration policy. Even after the Dutch-Italian agreement, there are still major differences between what northern, southern and eastern EU member states want.
There is a deadline coming up: next June there will be European elections. This means that the Member States and the European Parliament must have resolved it by February next year. In any case, this will not provide any relief for Ter Apel for next summer.
Even then, the question is whether a European agreement will be able to reduce the total number of migrants. The pact partly seeks the solution in fortifying the borders, but a border fence does not prevent people from getting on boats. It is also moderately successful in getting countries to take back their nationals who have exhausted all legal remedies, as a result of which reception places for asylum seekers are partly filled with those who have exhausted all legal remedies. Europe wants a policy of rewards and punishments for those countries, but remains dependent on their goodwill.
Boat people
Finally, Europe cannot control the increase in the number of global conflicts. This year, both the number of asylum applications and the number of ‘irregular border crossings’ are the highest since 2016. There are still many war refugees from Syria and Afghanistan, but the border control service Frontex also found many Ivorians, Guineans and Pakistanis on the boats this year. They usually do not qualify for asylum, but do keep beds occupied.
In recent years, Europe has concluded agreements with neighboring countries such as Turkey and Libya to keep migrants there, for a hefty fee. These agreements are under pressure: Syrians in Turkey no longer feel so welcome there, and migrants in Libya are in even worse shape. Sudanese fleeing the conflict in their country have not yet arrived in Libya in large numbers.
It is now clear that the situation in yet another neighboring country is driving up the number of boat migrants. Tunisian President Kais Saied, whose country is grappling with a deep financial crisis, refuses IMF aid and even preaches the theory that black Africans are coming to replace the original Tunisian population. Migrants from sub-Saharan countries do not know how quickly to get on a boat to Italy.
In addition to Rutte and Meloni, the European Commission is also very aware of the situation in Tunisia. Last month alone, Tunis could look forward to the arrival of two European Commissioners. Their goal is to make the same deal with Tunisia as with Turkey and Libya, the main question being who pays. And does such an agreement also work if President Saied refuses IMF interference?
What Rutte has achieved is that the subject of migration has been given a permanent place on the agenda of European government leaders. In Brussels there is appreciation for these efforts. At home, and especially at his own party, the disappointment is heard that Rutte’s efforts do not lead to immediate results. But the number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands is determined in Tunis rather than in the Torentje.
With the cooperation of Clara van de Wiel
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of May 27, 2023.