Prestigious specialists such as Dr. Luis Enjuanes and Dr. Isabel Sola have no doubts: “we can be certain that there will be more emerging viruses and more pandemics”
Since 2019, we have been living with the SARS-CoV-2 virusresponsible for COVID-19 and which has meant the first great pandemic of the 21st century. But specialists are convinced that it will not be the last.
The next global pandemic is only a matter of timeas stated by the Dr. Luis Enjuanesdirector of the coronavirus laboratory at the National Biotechnology Center in Madrid, and the Dr. Isabel Solascientist at the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC).
“Hopen more emerging viruses and more pandemics”
It turns out that viruses are the most abundant organisms on the planet and “we only know the tip of the iceberg,” as Dr. Sola assures:
- “It is estimated that in mammals There are 300,000 viruses yet to be discovered. Right now we know about 200 human virusesand of them three quarters are zoonotic, that is, they are in animals and they can jump people”, as happened with COVID-19.
And he insists that:
- “We can be certain that there will be more emerging viruses and more pandemics“That’s why we should improve our preparation for the future.”
What makes a virus more likely to cause a pandemic?
As Dr. Sola explains, some viruses have greater pandemic potential than others, and this is due to several factors:
- Ability to infect new species. May the virus suffer enough mutations and genetic changes until having the capacity to infect a new species, whether another intermediate animal or humans.
- Great transmission capacity between humans. That is, it has an easy route of contagion, such as by air, and that it is not too aggressive against the host, so that this allows it to continue spreading among the population.
These two factors are what made, for example, the Ebola would not spread so quickly:
- Transmission mode is through fluids
- And furthermore, it is very virulent. That is, those who suffer from it become seriously ill and need to urgently go to a hospital. This makes the virus easier to detect and thus we can stop its spread.
On the opposite side we have COVID-19, which is asymptomatic in many cases, so people can continue to infect it without knowing it, and that multiplies its spread.
Factors that favor the emergence of new viruses
As the doctor explains, these are the alarm factors that must be observed when we talk about the emergence of new viruses:
- Natural genetic variations. That is, the changes or mutations suffered by viruses found in animals or in the natural environment. That is why you have to monitor them to see which ones may pose a risk.
- Environmental and ecological changes. Climate change directly influences the survival and multiplication of viruses. As pointed out by Dr. Enjuanesthe increase in temperature causes the mosquitoes that transmit the West Nile virus (WNV) to move to areas further north, where their survival was previously impossible.
- human movements. Globalization and air travel make it possible for infectious agents to reach any part of the world in 24 hours.
- Changes in human behaviors. Like having animals as pets that we didn’t usually live with, like rats or pigs. These behaviors can lead to potentially dangerous contact between species.
- Health deficiencies in developing countries. The spread of the same virus in a developed country with the capacity to detect new viruses and isolate those infected will never be the same as in underdeveloped countries.
Is it possible to prevent a new pandemic? ‘One Health’ concept
It is true that preventing a pandemic is very complicated, but it is also true that there are some ways to get advantages and be more prepared when this happens.
That is why Dr. Isabel Sola explains:
- “When it comes to preventing a pandemic, It is important not to focus only on humans. We must also consider animals, because they can be transmitters of the virus, and the environment in general. Therefore, it is necessary adopt a position that is inclusiveas the ‘One Health’ concept of the World Health Organization”.
This idea is based on the fact that there are so many factors that influence the appearance and spread of a virus, that it is necessary that health is considered globallymultidisciplinary and collaborative.
On the other hand, the epidemiological surveillance is essential:
- “We must study the animal environment and the environment for find out if there are any viruses that are spreading “more than usual.” In this way, it could stop your progress before it mutates and becomes dangerous to humans.
The scientific community is also committed to begin to identify and study those 300,000 viruses unknown in mammals, to find out which ones have pandemic potential.
And although the cost-benefit ratio of this research is profitable, it opens a moral debate:
- Is it legal to replicate a virus in the laboratory that is potentially dangerous to health?
- Should these experiments be prohibited, even if they benefit society?
“It is essential define the boundaries between risks and benefitsand of course, establish some security measures very strict, to ensure that viruses are not misused or developed biological weapons” says Dr. Sola.
Next pandemic: Which virus will be responsible?
In relation to the next pandemic, experts agree and warn that we can’t know for surebut it is likely that it is again a respiratory virusas flu and coronavirus.
But they insist that predicting the exact origin of the next pandemic is very difficult, since within coronaviruses there are several genera and families.
According to Dr. Solá:
- “What experience tells us is that The viruses that have the greatest pandemic potential are, above all, respiratory viruseslike the virus flu and coronaviruses. Most likely, it will come from these. Other families of viruses cannot be excluded, but these are the most likely.