Last year Roberto Zapatathe focus group specialist of Jaime Durán Barbamet with the campaign team Horacio Rodriguez Larreta to present the studies carried out throughout the country. The result was overwhelming: the head of the Buenos Aires government had little chance of defeating Patricia Bullrich inside, he told them. Larreta, who was listening to the presentation between surprised and annoyed, responded by arguing that they should not worry about the PASO, that he was going to be the only candidate. He missed the prediction.
As the months went by, the PRO president’s nomination grew, until she became the winner of the internal election. For this reason, the result of the elections on Sunday, August 13, is a blow that Larreta still finds difficult to assimilate. Beyond the intense tours of the country, the agreements with leaders of different spaces and elected governors, and despite how expensive the campaign was, she lost by a landslide.
His political project collapsed and, since December, will have to be rebuilt from the ground up: for a management man like him, it will be quite a challenge. “I’m going to have to learn to live with myself,” he jokes with those close to him. But the joke is full of reality: you must assume that there will be moments of loneliness in what is to come.
The argument he found in the face of such a disappointing result was that it was not his political moment. “If the country asks for a Bolsonaro, it won’t be me,” he repeats when asked about the electoral setback.
His environment is also preparing for the coming challenge: “Anyone who thinks that Horacio is going to go home is wrong,” they say. He will set up a foundation, surround himself with the most loyal and try to plan the future.. Despite the tough defeat, in his mind he is still a candidate. The only difference is that his path was lengthened.
Future.
As a platform to continue in politics, Larreta has already begun to set up his foundation. It will be in the style of the Sophia Group, the think thank that the head of Government founded in the ’90s and that lost legal status two years ago because the General Inspection of Justice verified that they had not presented balance sheets or appointed authorities for a decade. They did not imagine that they could need it again.
In the reconstruction, which will begin from the foundation, Larreta will surround himself with loyalists. A small group of people who will accompany you on the plain: his brother Augusto, Federico Di Benedetto, Eduardo Machiavelli, Ema Ferrario, Marina Fernández, Julia Pomares and his secretary Jorgelina.
The rest of the team that the head of Government commanded in the City began to look for new directions. The thing is, With the arrival of Jorge Macri, a new cabinet will arrive. The survivors will be the second and third lines: the experienced technical teams.
The recurring question around Larreta is knowing how he will react when he puts on the handbrake. “He is a guy who has managed every day of his life since 2007,” they say. Focused on work and the goal of being president, he showed off his packed agenda. He scheduled 15-minute meetings and even had meetings with officials while running.
What for him was pure efficiency was misinterpreted and generated anger in the campaign. Their routes were timed. Unlike Bullrich, who stayed for long periods of time with the candidates and the militancy, Larreta did not manage to build personal relationships. He had a hard time empathizing.
In team meetings, The criticism is raised above all towards the communication of the campaign, but they also reproach the head of government for having become so politicized about the end. Additionally, some consultants believe there was a missed opportunity since the previous elections: “After we won in 2021, Horacio should have hit the table and said: ‘I am the leader.’”Now analyze one of the shipowners. And he completes: “For taking care of all the leaders of Juntos, we almost celebrated with shame in 2021. We hid after winning,” he protests.
Since he launched into the presidential adventure, Larreta told his people that he had no plan B. It was the way to convince them that they had to go for everything, even when the polls for the last stretch of the campaign were not encouraging. Now he has no other plan either: his resilience will be tested.
After accepting defeat, Larreta gathered his team and told them that his goal was still the presidency. “My convictions remain the same as always. “Argentina needs a broad majority that arises from consensus and dialogue to achieve changes,” he said. He will continue working in that middle avenue that, for now, gave him little return. For now, the open panorama of the general elections keeps them expectant.
If Bullrich wins the elections, Larreta’s reinvention period could be extended. However, If the Together for Change candidate loses, she has some chance of becoming the new leader of the opposition. In any case, his team assures that the Buenos Aires mayor does not speculate: he works so that his coalition reaches the Government. Age plays in his favor: he is ten years younger than Bullrich and seven years younger than Mauricio Macri. He can still wait.
Internal.
Just as the objective of reaching the presidency is intact, despite the harsh defeat in the PASO, Larreta is still driven by the same inner fire: he wants to take revenge on Macri. The former president, with whom they turned their backs a long time ago, chose the winning candidates: Patricia and cousin Jorge. He hit a full in the same play in which all the chips were taken from the mayor of Buenos Aires.
The relationship between the two is still broken. In fact, The last time they spoke was on the day of the PASO, in the Puerto Norte bunker. Although in larretismo they make a reservation: “The problem was always with Mauricio, with his cousin there are no problems,” they say.
With the Juntos candidate to succeed him in office, they assure that there is a good relationship, despite the short circuits. “Jorge’s campaign was done from here, from the City,” they indicate. to be collaborative. However, When the Macri cousins meet, they talk about him in a derogatory way. “The traitor,” they nicknamed him.
On the other hand, there is a certain joy in the larretismo over the treatment that Macri is giving to Bullrich. They feel that The former president is doing to the Juntos candidate something of what he had done to him. That now the former president is going after her.
Macri has been flirting with Javier Milei, the most voted PASO, since before the primary elections. In an interview before August 13, he praised the liberal economist. Then, still in the run-up, the La Libertad Avanza candidate said that Mauricio had called him to congratulate him on the campaign. And finally, after the election, he put them on equal footing. A betrayal in three steps that generated Bullrich’s fury.
With the Juntos candidate, the Larreta small table ensures that there is a good relationship. That they met once and spoke on the phone four times since the elections. But they admit that it is difficult for them to get feedback. An example of this is the postponed meeting of the technical teams: it was going to be in the last week but, at the close of this edition, in Uspallata they were still waiting for the day and time of the meeting to be established.
“Patricia’s problem is not with us. The thing is that she does not finish defining the axis of her own campaign,” they console themselves in larretismo. But the disregard they receive from the winner of the internal competition bothers them. There are many in the PRO who venture that, unless it is due to a strong electoral need, the candidate will not give a prominent place to her competitor. Neither now, nor in a possible government.
An alert went off in Bullrich’s campaign bunker with the survey published by the consulting firm Opinaia in recent days. The work analyzes the transfer of votes in the primaries and indicates thatAt this point, 23% of Larreta voters would be migrating to Milei. The drag effect of the winner would disperse part of the Juntos electorate.
Therein lies Bullrich’s first challenge: before going out to convince those who did not participate in the primaries, he has to retain the votes of the coalition. “Vote for Together for Change,” Larreta asked his voters. And he promised: “Within the space, I am going to express the ideas for which you voted for me.”
On Carlos Pagni’s program, in one of his first media appearances after the defeat, he made public his support: “I am going to work so that Together for Change wins, I am going to do everything in my power so that Patricia Bullrich is president, because I do not believe in extreme positions, in aggression and in violence as a way of doing politics”. It still remains to know what the candidate wants from him. For now, little or nothing.
Contacts.
To muddy the field, from the Government they circulated versions about possible contacts between the head of the Buenos Aires Government and Sergio Massa, who have a historical friendship. “It’s all a lie, no one spoke to me,” the PRO defended himself. And he added: “Besides, I wouldn’t do it, I work for Together for Change.” In fact, to whom she distrusts, Larreta shows on her cell phone that the last message they exchanged was on the day of the PASO, to greet each other for the failed election.
The version, which began to roll out in the Ministry of Economy, had to do with the fact that, in order to provoke Milei’s defeat in the general elections, the ruling party and part of the opposition coalition could advance in an agreement. That is why the meeting between Juan Manuel Olmos, deputy chief of staff, and an alleged envoy of the head of the Buenos Aires government would have been generated. “If someone met with an official of the ruling party, they are self-employed, it was not in the name of Horacio,” they defend him in your enviroment.
But the bridges between the second and third lines would be fluid, especially in the province of Buenos Aires, where some leaders who were part of Larretismo could work for Massa, against the interests of Bullrich and Néstor Grindetti, the candidate for governor of Together.
Since the PASO, the Buenos Aires mayor was forced to lower the intensity of work. Much of the agenda, which had been freed up for the presidential campaign, is today occupied with neighborhood activities and meetings with neighbors. It is evident in most of the newsletters that the City’s press team sends.
For the first time in a long time, he had a couple of days of disconnection. It was on Friday the 23rd, when he took a flight with his partner, Milagros Maylin, to Santiago de Chile. During the walk, which lasted just two days, he managed not to pay attention to the phone.
After leaving management he will deal with personal aspects. In the order of priorities is recovering time to spend with his daughters, studying a postgraduate degree and, lastly, increasing the number of weekly hours of sports. Running and swimming, in principle, but also playing paddle tennis. He is not going to work as an economist or consultant: his main economic support will be the family agricultural business.
Larreta works to convince himself that the mistake was not him or his proposals, but that society was demanding something else. He filled an album with political support from national and provincial leaders, and anchored his proposals in generating consensus. But it didn’t work: it’s hard wing time. “Milei’s victory reflects the fatigue of many people with a policy that did not give results,” he analyzed in an interview with Eduardo Feinmann. But he added: “I do not agree with how this fatigue is channeled. “I will continue to seek unity and coalitions.”
From ostracism he will have to rebuild his career to fulfill his dream of becoming president.. Now you will have plenty of time to think about what went wrong on your first attempt. And above all, how he went from being the favorite candidate of Together for Change to being left empty-handed.
by Carlos Claá and Rodis Recalt
