The novelty of politics deciding who will govern the country as of December 10 failed to add the necessary dose of tranquility that another more “foreseeable” result would have calmed the storm that was unleashed on the economic scenario starting with the PASO in August. Let us remember that the devaluation implemented hours after the close of the last elections triggered a raid of remarks and adjustments in rates that ran on par with the dollar in all its formats.. The lesson of August is that since it was not the first time, it will not be the last in which the reference prices in the economy are abruptly rearranged and we must take shelter.
That and no other was the force that drove so many people to empty shelves, invade shopping malls and collapse online shopping pages to be able to shelter from the deluge that, they estimate, will happen sooner rather than later.
The projections point to an unappealable fact: the speed with which the Mint produces new banknotes to supply the demand for the effects of the creative and bold initiatives that the Minister of Economy-candidate produced tirelessly during this time. But since, no matter how much gymnastics there are between economic agents, it takes time for the monetary overflow to affect prices, our focus is on the price of free-financial dollars, which is the most sensitive and the one that catalyzes the fastest changes. expectations. That is why everyone will look at what will happen to the official dollar stuck at $350 due to the promise made after the last devaluation. Will it last at that value for four more weeks? And if so, will the economy be able to function with some normality while the rest of the variables creak?
If Sergio Massa’s first challenge is to extend what was left of the Plan Arrives until the runoff, the first signs that he could achieve it are in the price of the dollar and indirectly in what happens in the dollarized bond market. The first signal was given in the external market, when sovereign bonds fell almost to 10% at the start and then, the blue dollar, which had been virtually canceled in the last two days of last week, updated its value ($1050 with a large gap between buyer and seller) at the same time that the price of cash with settlement (CCL) also dropped from fire prices to $995. It is still too early to project these numbers as definitive, but the truth is that they will mark the economic agenda in these four weeks. The magnitude of the result in itself was surprising and that is why a correction of expectations over reality would not be illogical.
The next inflation index, for this turbulent October, would be known before the vote (Monday, November 13, if the date of the runoff was firm). A last attempt to contain and agree on prices, ration supply to hide the shortage (as with fuel) or continue stretching import settlement deadlines will require a lot of concentration of official efforts so that the precarious balances achieved are not upset. But doubts will also turn to expectations about the speed with which the monetary expansion of this election year will end up boosting internal prices even more. Issues such as the next payment to the IMF or the update of the official exchange rate will also remain for the long term (after November 20). A boomerang that the twists and turns of the election year could end up placing on the official candidate’s own list of tasks to do.
