The population of 37% of Catalan municipalities will decrease over the next decade, according to Idescat projections
200 towns face an extreme risk of depopulation, most of them towns with less than 500 inhabitants
Catalonia has an important territorial imbalance. Almost 95% of its 7.7 million inhabitants live in 300 municipalities of more than 2,000 inhabitants, mainly concentrated in the province of Barcelona and the coastline that extends from Portbou to Alcanar. The rest live scattered throughout its 647 remaining municipalities, towns mostly from the Rural Catalonia older and neglected by economic development. It is there where the concentration depopulation problema phenomenon that began with the 19th century industrialization in the metropolitan arc of Barcelona and worsened with the mechanization of agriculture from 1950, which progressively emptied the Catalan countryside of day laborers.
Initiatives are now springing up everywhere to try to reverse the demographic drainBut it won’t be easy or quick. Estimates from the Institut Demogràfic de Catalunya (Idescat) suggest that 354 of the 947 Catalan municipalities will lose population in the period between 2018 and 2033. No less than 77% of the peoples of the Terres de l’Ebre (Baix Ebre, Montsià, Terra Alta, Ribera d’Ebre), 68% of the municipalities of the Speaker from Lleida (Noguera, Segrià, Pla d’Urgell, Urgell, Segarra and Les Garrigues) and 61% of the Alt Pirineu and Aran (Alta Ribagorça, Alt Urgell, Baixa Cerdanya, Pallars Jussà, Pallars Sobirà and Vall d’Aran).
Extreme risk of depopulation
The losses will be concentrated in the population centers with less than 500 inhabitants. But not only. reach (-4.7%), Vilafant (-4.5%) and Agramunt (-3%) are the municipalities with more than 5,000 inhabitants with the worst demographic prospects, according to Idescat estimates. Of that world in decline there is 200 towns that face an “extreme risk of depopulation & rdquor;, according to a study by the University of Lleida published last year. “They are municipalities with a very low population volume and extremely negative future prospects, especially with regard to their vegetative growth”, says Josep Ramon Mòdol, co-author of the study together with fellow geographer Ignasi Aldomà.
“They have one very old population that will prevent them from growing in the short and medium term unless there is an entry of young immigrants, surely of foreign origin, because Catalonia has had negative natural growth for several years & rdquor ;. Those 200 villages are, however, no more than the tip of the iceberg because, according to Mòdol, half of the Catalan towns face the risk of depopulation, a concept based on half a dozen indicators, such as the population under 15 years of age, the migratory balance or the evolution of employment in each municipality.
“That doesn’t mean they will disappearbut rather that they are immersed in a vicious circle that will prevent them from maintaining their population size if the housing problems, the lack of economic activity or the infrastructure deficit are not reversed,&rdquor ;, affirms the geographer. The pandemic has given a break to the rural world, but it is not clear if the trend will continue. A recent study by the Autonomous University of Barcelona and the Center d’Estudis Demogràfics ensures that, throughout Spain, population movements towards rural municipalities increased by 20.5%, while departures decreased by 12.6%.
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