The progressive coalition NUPES and the parties related to Macron would be practically tied with 25% of the votes, with a slight advantage for the left, according to provisional results
Macron’s party could overcome the situation in the second round of the legislative elections, but the absolute majority hangs in the balance
Check Emmanuel Macron. The results in the first round of the legislative they leave the French president on the ropes and make it difficult for his coalition to reach an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPES) it would be the most voted force in the parliamentary elections this Sunday with 25.6% of the votes and would be ahead, with a minimum distance, of the macronist coalition Together (25.2%), according to the estimate of the results of the Ipsos institute based on a provisional count, which is usually quite reliable at the final count.
The presidential coalition could overcome the situation in the second round, but its absolute majority —a minimum of 289 deputies— hangs by a thread. Despite Macron’s victory in the presidential elections in April, the candidates close to the centrist leader were not catapulted by that victory and managed to a result clearly lower than that of the 2017 legislative elections (32%). The presidential coalition could achieve between 275 and 310 deputies in the second round, according to projections for the second round on June 19.
The NUPES (formed by the France Insumisa, the Socialist Party, the greens and the communists) would aspire to get between 180 and 210 deputies. But these forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt as it is a new scenario: the confrontation between the Macronist center-right and the left. The future of the National Assembly – the elected deputies are the most voted candidate in each of the 577 constituencies – will be decided in a majority of duels between these two new adversaries.
Most uncertain legislative since 1997
“The truth is that the presidential party (…) has suffered a defeat. For the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, a recently elected president did not achieve a majority in the legislative elections that are held next,” said Jean -Luc Mélenchon (ecosocialist), leader of NUPES, who aspires to become the new prime minister in the unlikely event that the left-wing coalition obtains an absolute majority in the second round.
Despite having been third in the first round of the presidential elections —with nearly 22% of the votes and 400,000 to overtake Le Pen—, the rebellious leader turned these legislative elections into the most uncertain since 1997 by composing a unitary alliance with the rest of the parties of the French left, weighed down in recent years by its fragmentation. For the first time in the last two decades, an opposition formation would overtake the presidential coalition in the first round of parliamentary elections, if the provisional results are confirmed.
A high abstention
Macronism also paid in this first round for the first few weeks of Macron’s second term punctuated by a succession of controversies, such as the organizational fiasco in the Champions League final, in addition to the scant political impact of the appointment of the new prime minister, Élisabeth Borne . “We are the only force that can achieve an absolute majority” in parliament, said Borne, who came first in her constituency in western France. Nonetheless, macronismo suffered some painful defeatssuch as the elimination from the first round of Jean Michel Blanquerthe former Minister of Education, heavily criticized by teachers.
These elections were also marked by some very high abstention rates. Between 51% and 52% of French people did not turn out to vote, according to projections by polling institutes. A turnout similar to, and even lower than, that of 2017, when a record abstention was already registered in some legislative elections. These data confirm the trend of electoral demobilization in France. Will it be accentuated in the second round? Or could there be an unexpected increase in the percentage of voters? The left relies on its reserve of voters among abstentionists, especially among young people, to surprise in the second round.
The ultra Le Pen, offside
The high abstention rate probably influenced the modest result of the far-right National Rally. The match of Marine Le Penwhich clearly prevailed in its constituency in the north of France, would get 18.9% of the vote, but would be eliminated in most constituencies. According to estimates, the extreme right could only get between 5 and 40 deputies. That is to say, it could even be below the threshold of 15 deputies that allows to constitute a group of its own in Parliament, something fundamental for the coffers of the parties.
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The candidates of Reconquista, the formation of the Islamophobic polemicist Éric Zemmour, achieved less than 5% and could stay no parliamentary representation. Zemmour himself was eliminated from the first round in his Cote d’Azur constituency in south-eastern France.
After having suffered a blow with less than 5% of the votes in the presidential elections, The Republicans (related to the PP in France) resisted in this first round and got between 11% and 14% of the vote, according to estimates. Projections give them between 40 and 60 seats. And they could become a decisive force in the future of Macron’s second term.