In addition to unleashing a very hot war in Europe, Vladimir Putin it has made much more explicit the cold war that the US-led democracies were already waging against a ragtag band of autocracies like Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. For the Kirchner government, the resulting climate change has been very bad news. It is as if the developed world has taken over the banners of the local “right-wing” opposition. It so happens that, feeling compelled to call attention to what makes them superior to their enemies, the Western powers have begun to underline with greater emphasis than before the need to defend the independence of the Judiciary and, of course, to intensify the fight against corruption that, among other things, facilitates the activities of drug traffickers and other thugs linked to organized crime.
So, since the invasion of Ukraine began, the leaders of the world’s most prosperous countries are judging the conduct of others more rigorously. They want to know if they deserve to be included in the democratic alliance, which in many cases would force them to improve the institutional quality in their countries, or if they will be inclined to make common cause with autocracies. For one like Argentina, which could suffer a catastrophic economic collapse at any moment, being considered an enemy of the rich world could only have extremely negative consequences, since it would deprive it of access to the financial resources it needs.
For those who question the democratic credentials of the national government, the will of Alberto Fernández to show solidarity with Nicolas Maduro it makes one suspect that the Kirchnerists would love to formally ally with Iran and other dangerous autocracies but do not do so for fear of repercussions. They have not forgotten that, on the eve of the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Alberto suggested to Putin that it would be great if Argentina served as “Russia’s gateway to Latin America”, an offer that at that time the most charitable attributed to their supine ignorance of international realities because the drums of war were already sounding.
Those who thought so may have been right, but it was not just the scant interest of the people who advised him in what was happening in other latitudes and their propensity to look for pretexts to support those who rebel against the international status quo. It is also an insurmountable mental gap. It would seem that it is as difficult for the Kirchnerists to understand the North Americans and Europeans as it is for them to place Peronism on the ideological board and, even more so, the variant of the creed that Cristina and her henchmen have improvised. Is it from the left, from the right, or does it occupy a place that experts in political geometry have not yet detected?
It did not help to clarify anything what happened recently in Geneva, where the government’s Human Rights Secretary, Horacio Pietragalla, tried to convince the members of the UN Human Rights Council that Cristina and Milagro Sala from Jujuy were victims of judicial tyranny . After overcoming the surprise that the spectacle put on by an official who was seeking the condemnation of his own country for trampling on the human rights of its most powerful and, according to some, wealthiest inhabitant, surely motivated them, the representatives of the organization limited themselves to request that “the full independence of the judiciary and prosecutors” be respected here, thus implying that the government did not do so. It would seem that they were not impressed by the Kirchnerist logic, according to which the human rights of people completely depend on their political attitudes, and that for this reason the processes against the vice president and the head of office must be treated as “lawfare”. Tupac Amaru. Arrogant products of a Eurocentric culture, those gathered in Geneva did not understand “lawfare” and, to make matters worse, believed that certain basic rules should be considered universal.
Many members of the political class have isolationist instincts; they would like to stay equidistant from Putin and Joe Biden, the Chinese dictator Xi Jinping, the rabid Iranian theocrats and the drab leaders of the European Union. They believe that in a multilateral world, neutrality is an option that could be advantageous. Even so, it would be advisable for the current government, and its successor, to proceed with great caution, since abroad there are many who prefer clear definitions to strategic ambiguity. If signs continue to proliferate that the current government – which, despite its often grotesque performance, has retained a notable level of political support – is deep down an authoritarian vocation, which is why Alberto feels more akin to subjects such as the Venezuelan Maduro, the Nicaraguan Daniel Ortega and, needless to say, the Cuban Miguel Díaz-Canel, who to accredited democrats such as the Uruguayan Luis Lacalle Pou and the Chilean Gabriel Boric, the United States, the European Union and Japan could reach the conclusion that it would be better to let Argentina cook in its own sauce. From the point of view of those concerned about the country’s international reputation, the impromptu Celac summit, in which the Argentine president sought to vindicate the democratic legitimacy of the region’s last dictators, was a disaster.
In any case, although Alberto wanted his “friend” Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva to appear as a full member of the club of dictators and their supporters, the Brazilian managed to dodge the trap that was set for him and, after refusing to go to the Senate for a chat and photo with Cristina, while he was passing through Uruguay he did not hesitate to visit the farm in Rincón del Cerro of former president José Mujica, which could be interpreted as a very clear diplomatic message. For reasons that are understandable, Lula and the diplomats who care for him are reluctant to allow the Kirchnerists to set him up as the leader of a league of Latin American authoritarians that includes such idiots as Maduro and Ortega.
To make the panorama facing the Kirchnerists even more disturbing, the North Americans and Europeans, especially the Germans, are increasingly expressing their refusal to tolerate the rampant corruption that persists in countries that, in their opinion, are in their sphere of influence. western. The same as the respect for the autonomy of the Judiciary, is something that differentiates them from autocracies. This is the reason why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite being in the middle of a fierce war in which the survival of his country is in danger, has not hesitated to fire prominent members of his government who had been accused of enriching themselves at the expense of their compatriots with illegal methods. Despite the fact that the situation in which Argentina finds itself cannot be compared to that of Ukraine, there are plenty of politicians who do not want an eventual president to emulate Zelensky in the fight against corruption for fear of being among those sanctioned.
There are signs that the costs of tolerating evil, treating it like a minor internal matter, will continue to rise. The Biden administration has just put former presidents of Paraguay and Panama on a blacklist of corrupt characters who will not be able to enter the United States. Will Cristina have a place on the list? Some influential US legislators have already asked that the lady be included in the list of kleptocrats who would risk being arrested if they tried to visit Las Vegas, Miami, New York or Disneyland. Until now, the Biden government has preferred not to do so, but it is an ominous alternative that Cristina and her followers will have to take into account from now on.
Be that as it may, there is no doubt that the toughest Kirchnerism offensive against Justice has already greatly harmed the country by scaring all businessmen with the eventual exception of “experts in regulated markets.” For reasons that are not mysterious, those tempted to risk investing want to make sure that, in the event of conflicts, their legal rights are respected, which is not usually the case in countries where it is normal for everything to be subordinated to the political or economic interests of certain principled individuals. flexible.
Given that, in order to overcome the many challenges that await it in the coming months and years, Argentina will need to obtain large investments, the mere existence of a powerful political sector that is against the liberal capitalism typical of the developed world and, with authoritarian variants, , from China, is cause for concern. Even if, as seems likely, this sector suffers a setback in the short term, it could be greatly strengthened in the medium term as the social impact of the adjustments that, whatever happens, the next government will have to carry out makes itself felt. Thus, unless a hypothetical government of Together for Change begins its life with the support of an overwhelming majority of the electorate, it will not be more successful than that of Mauricio Macri when it comes to seducing large investors, be they Argentines. or foreigners.
