He Statistics National Institute (INE) has published this Monday the GDP review data corresponding to the period from 2020 to 2022 and the conclusion is that the economy grew 5.8% in 2022 in real terms (three tenths above the figure of 5.5% anticipated in January and March 2023), without taking into account the effect of inflation. In nominal terms, The growth was 10.2%, two tenths above the preliminary data for January.
The National Institute of Statistics now calculates a GDP volume for 2022 that is 1.5% higher than in its previous estimate
In addition, the GDP data for 2020 and, above all, 2021 have also been revised upwards. the new series published this Monday, it turns out that the fall in GDP in 2020 was 11.2% (compared to -11.3% in the previous series). Furthermore, the real growth of 2021 to 6.4% (compared to the previous 5.5%) and that of 2022 stands at 5.8% (three tenths above what was anticipated in January).
Thus, the cumulative update of the national accounts for the periods 2020, 2021 and 2022 leads to an estimate of the annual GDP at current prices of 1,346,277 million euros in 2022, 1.5% higher than the level initially estimated by the INE (19,269 million more). The new data anticipates the recovery of the pre-pandemic GDP level in 2022, instead of having done so in the first quarter of 2023, as the preliminary data indicated. In fact, at the end of 2022, the volume of GDP was 8% above what it existed in 2019 (1,245,513 million).
Lower debt burden
The greater volume of GDP allows the weight of public debt to be cut by 1.6 points in 2022, up to 111.6% of GDP
Furthermore, the fact that nominal GDP (in millions of euros) is now higher leads to a lower weight of public debt about him. In particular, as highlighted by the Ministry of Economy, the increase in nominal GDP by more than 20,000 million euros allows reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio by an additional 1.6 points at the end of 2022 (up to 111.6% of GDP ) and would allow anticipating the fiscal objectives set in the Stability Program, bringing forward the reduction to below 110% to 2023.
From the point of view of the Ministry of Economy, the new data from the INE also reflect “the quality of the growth of the Spanish economy, which has especially benefited families, increasing the weight of salaries on GDP by more than one point”.
More consumption, less investment, more export
In particular, with respect to 2022, the INE now estimates a lower contribution from national demand (2.9%, compared to the previous 3.1%) and a greater contribution of external demand (2.9%, compared to 2.4%).
The review of the National Accounts series is carried out regularly in all EU countries, as the latest statistics are incorporated into the calculations. In this estimate – which may still be modified in future updates – the data from the Family Budget Survey (EPF) of 2022 and the advance estimate of the Economic Accounts of the Agriculture; It also incorporates updated foreign trade data, from the accounts of Public Administrations and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH), as explained by the INE in the statement issued this Monday.
With the new updated series, the INE now estimates greater growth in the family spending (4.7%, compared to the previous 4.4%) and a smaller cut in the public consumption (-0.2% compared to -0.7% previously). In the opposite direction, the new data point to lower growth in investment (1.4% vs. previous estimate of 3.5%). The INE now raises the advance of the exports (instead of the previous estimate of 14.4%) and cuts to 7% that of imports (from 7.9%). All of this is what results in a GDP growth of 5.8%, three tenths above the 5.5% advanced in January.
The incorporation of new data sources in the National Accounting series published by the INE also affects the employment variables and hours worked. Thus, the rate of variation in employment in terms of full-time equivalent jobs It is now at 3.7%, compared to the 3.8% estimated in March. For its part, hours worked increased by 3.9%, compared to the previous 4.1%, and the growth of remuneration of employees was 7.3%, compared to the previously estimated 6.5%.
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By branches of activity, the review carried out by the INE translates into a greater weight of the constructionny of the Real estate activities and professionals and in a downward correction of the industry.
The intense upward revision of the National Accounting data presented this Monday by the INE has its origin, above all, in the correction of 2021, an exercise in which the statistical measurement faced the additional complexity added by the outbreak of the covid health crisis. “This fact is not unique in the case of Spain, but has been observed in other neighboring countries that have already published revised figures for 2021. Thus, Netherlands has revised its GDP growth in volume for 2021 upwards by 1.3 points, United Kingdom it has done so by 1.1 points and Germany by 0.6 points. For its part, France has revised it downwards by 0.4 points,” the INE points out in its informative note.