Hi Arnout, the Hungarian foreign minister was in Moscow yesterday and asked the Russians for more gas. Where does that striking request come from?
‘Just like in the rest of Europe, energy prices have risen enormously in Hungary. Since last week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has had a special mandate to tap gas reserves elsewhere. His mandate stems from the energy emergency declared by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
‘The country has no access to seaports and can only get gas via pipelines over land. In order to keep the price down, it must therefore look for energy on the mainland. Despite the war in Ukraine, the Hungarians are not afraid to look to Russia again, even if that is against the sore leg of the European Union. In Moscow, Foreign Minister Szijjártó asked his Russian counterpart Lavrov to significantly increase the gas supply. Lavrov has said he will look into the possibilities.’
Why is Orbán willing to sharpen relations with European leaders for Russian gas?
‘The low energy prices for households have been Orbán’s crown jewel for about ten years now. Now that prices have soared, it’s getting harder and harder to keep them artificially low. From August, people who exceed average consumption will have to pay seven times more for gas and twice more for electricity. It shows how far apart the artificial and real prices are.
‘Moreover, there is no money left to compensate for the price difference. Hungary is still waiting for money from the EU. For example, the Hungarians would receive billions from the corona recovery fund, but the European Commission first wants the government to improve the rule of law. The same applies to the billions from the multi-year budget. The European Commission does not want it to be spent improperly because of concerns about widespread corruption.
“That Orbán is a Putin hugger looking at Moscow is too simple. Above all, he wants to avoid having to make households pay even more. His country’s middle class supports him in exchange for economic stability. Orbán is already forced to take unpopular measures that lead to protests due to the deteriorating economic situation. So he’s under pressure.’
Does the Hungarian government not care that the Russians are waging a war in neighboring Ukraine?
Orbán’s story has always been that Hungary is a country between the East and the West and that they should continue to do business with both. This is true even in wartime. In the Hungarian media, which are 80 to 85 percent directly or indirectly affiliated with the government, the line has long been that Hungary is not a party to this conflict and Hungarians should not suffer from it.
‘That is of course striking when you look at other neighboring countries of Ukraine. Poland is very different. There they are militant, they do everything they can to support the Ukrainians and they are prepared to give up economically.
“For Europe, it is especially problematic that Orbán is cutting diplomatic ties with the Russians while the rest of the EU has almost completely turned its back on it. The European Union prefers to see all noses in the same direction, but Hungary does not want that.’
Can the EU still take a stand against the Russians if one of its member states begs for gas in Moscow?
‘This move by the Hungarians will have consequences in any case: they really put things on edge. Hungary also managed to tone down the measures somewhat two months ago, when the member states were negotiating a sixth sanctions package against Russia. The European unanimity in the reaction against the Russians has thus already taken quite a beating.
‘And now Europe has to deal with that again. It’s hard enough to get everyone in Europe in the same direction without Orbán. Perhaps the other member states will still succeed in getting Hungary along and the country simply wants to force a better deal. But the foreign minister’s visit to Moscow does not help. Hungary is thus once again aiming for an escalation with Brussels.’