August will not be over and the political rhythm will have passed almost from 0 to 100. The calm of the last few weeks -usual discussions aside- will be replaced in the coming days by a frenetic rhythm that will not give rest until 2024. A political course begins with clear pre-election tints -first, they will be the regional and local elections in May and after general at the end of the year – in which the Government intends to carry out the latest Budgets of the legislature and approve an intense legislative agenda. The first challenge -thermometer of the cohesion of the progressive bloc in Congress- will be to obtain the approval of the Lower House this week for the energy saving plan approved by the Executive at the beginning of August.
The few political appearances during the August break will be left behind next Tuesday. The Council of Ministers will meet again this Tuesday, kicking off an intense political cycle. The next day, the president of Congress, Meritxell Batetwill bring together the Permanent Deputation to discuss the requests for appearance of a dozen ministers and on Thursday he will convene an extraordinary plenary session in which the Government must pass its first test of the course. The bickering about the energy saving plan will crystallize in a vote in which the Executive does not have, for the moment, guaranteed support.
Looking for the supports
The continuity of the measures approved by the Council of Ministers on August 1, among which is the regulation of the temperature in shops and institutions or the lighting switch-off times, it is in the air. PP, Vox and Cs have rejected the royal decree-law, which once again places the focus on ERC, PNV, EH Bildu and minority parties. All have been very careful to reveal what the meaning of their vote will be, although none of the formations has been totally against the measures.
The result of Thursday’s vote, in which the decree of the forest fires and the one of new contribution system for the self-employedwill serve to test the health of the progressive bloc after Pedro Sanchez veer left in the state of the nation debate. Faced with a frenetic course, securing a majority in Congress is essential if the Executive wants to carry out its legislative agenda. However, the electoral calendar is against it and the proximity of the elections will make pacts on both sides of the ideological spectrum more difficult.
Energy and public accounts
Solved this first week, in which the law of the only yes is yes will also be approved in the Lower House, the Executive has numerous open fronts ahead of it. Third Vice President Theresa Riverawarned that the Government will present a contingency plan in September with more severe measures to achieve a savings of 7% of your energy bill. With the measures already implemented, the Executive expects to cut between 4% and 5%.
At the same time, the negotiations between PSOE and United We Can will take place to carry out the State’s general budgets for 2023. The last of the legislature, if they are approved. The pact between socialists and purples should be closed at the beginning of October, in order to be able to send it to Congress as soon as possible and start a dialogue with the rest of the parties. Last year, the Government obtained the support of CKD, GNP, Bildu, PDECat, More Country-Equo, compromise, Regionalist Party of Cantabria, New Canary Y Teruel exists. A loose majority of 188 votes that will be difficult to reissue, especially with Sánchez’s commitment to increase defense spending. Something that even United We Can rejects.
build alliances
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Among the plans of the Executive is to carry out almost a dozen very symbolic laws in the coming months. The first will be the law of the only yes is yes that will be approved in Congress this Thursday after a trick by the PP prevented its ratification in July in the Senate. The Democratic Memory Law will also see the light of day in the coming weeks. On the other hand, the Government intends to move forward with the bill to create two new temporary taxes on banks and large energy companies before the end of 2022. It will be more difficult to unblock the housing law, which despite being urgently processed, has taken four months stalled in Congress, or the repeal of the so-called ‘gag law’, where the two government parties are unable to reach agreements with the rest of the forces.
The parliamentary arithmetic to carry out this legislative agenda promises a lot of tension. The usual parliamentary members of the Executive must go through the fine line between passing laws with which they agree and give too much air to PSOE and United We Can just a few months before the elections are called in most of the autonomous communities and in all the municipalities. In addition, both socialists and purples will soon start preparations for the elections. The former, fine-tuning their candidates and the latter, entering what will be a complicated negotiation to build a broad candidacy. And all this with an eye on the December 2023 elections.