The Government sent this Saturday to the European Comission the 2022 budget plan, the deadline established by European standards. The text includes, as a novelty this year, the design of two scenarios. One online with the draft General State Budgets for 2023sent a few weeks ago to the Congress of Deputies, and another that includes additional measures to face the current energy crisis.
In both cases, the deficit forecast for all administrations 5% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023 contained in the Stability Program last April and with which the PGE 2023. The difference between the two scenarios lies in a higher level of spending and income.
In the second stageone is included higher revenue forecast for 2022 (42.9% of GDP, compared to 42.1% in scenario one) which is justified by “a forecast improvement as a result of the good performance of the economy” (expected to close the year with GDP growth of 4.4%). And, in turn, facing 2023it is foreseen “the use of the possible fiscal space to extend Y adopt the most appropriate measures in order to protect the families, workers and companies most affected by the energy crisis & rdquor ;.
Thus, the new plan announced by the Executive with a cost of 3,000 million euros and that will be financed in charge of the Budgets. This includes the extension of the thermal social bond and, as a novelty, also the assumption by the State of the natural gas last resort tariff shortfall (TUR), both the individual ones and the new tariff for the boilers of the neighboring communities, which until now assumed the marketers.
In addition, in the text there is a new measure for “make more flexibleuntil the end of 2023, the gas and electricity contracting conditions, allowing more than one power and pressure change every 12 months, so that consumers can better adapt to the volatility of energy prices & rdquor ;. This measure is especially aimed at large energy consumers.
This scenario anticipates a spending level next year of 46.9% of GDPcompared to the 47.9% established for this 2022. And it includes the extension of those measures “that are shown to be more effective, and are focused on protecting the most vulnerable groups, until the energy crisis is overcome & rdquor ;. This includes the extension of tax rebates on electricity and gas bills (reduction of VAT, reduction of the special tax for electricity and suspension of 7% on electricity production). Not mentionedneither for better nor for worse, the discount of 20 cents per liter on fuel.
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In this case, some 43% revenue (compared to the 42.9% forecast in this scenario for this year and the 42.3% of scenario one) with a tax pressure 39.2% (compared to 39.5% this year). The taxes reach 354,283 million euros by accelerated slowdown in GDP and the extension of tax measures”. In turn, the fiscal forecasts of this scenario include the positive effect “both the measures contemplated in the previous scenario, and new measures & rdquor ;. Thus, it is expected positive impact of the limitation on loss compensation in the groups in Corporate tax and the collection of the solidarity tax of large fortunes.
According to the Government, all the measures adopted to date to deal with the energy crisis exceeds 30,000 million euros. Of this amount, the “largest tax cut on the energy of history” has meant a impact of more than 10,000 million euros since they were implemented in June 2021.