The Anaheim Ducks have surprised everyone with their good moves.
Lukas Dostal has played well. AOP / USA TODAY SPORTS
The most interesting game of the day
The Anaheim Ducks have been the most positive surprises of the NHL’s early season. The team, which was predicted to be at the very top of the Western Conference at the end of the season, has already risen to sixth in the conference with its five-game winning streak.
Anaheim has won six of their ten games this season. In the light of the statistics, Anaheim is an interesting case because visually it has played quite well, but in terms of goalscoring, the team has been the second weakest in the series since the beginning of the season. Only abysmal San Jose (39%) has a lower goal expectation ratio, considering all game situations, than Anaheim (43%). Personally, I currently consider Anaheim to be a better team than their statistical numbers.
A significant or even the most significant factor in Anaheim’s early season success can be found in the team’s scoring. Goalkeeper who also played in Ilves in three seasons between 2018–21 Lukas Dostal has saved five victories for his team in the six matches he has played. Based on the early season, 23-year-old Dostal has raised his level a lot from last season. The Czech is 16th in the entire NHL goaltending statistics with his save percentage of 92.0.
Anaheim’s opponent on Sunday, last season’s Stanley cup champion Vegas Golden Knights, has suffered from everything but a championship hangover in the early season. Vegas is at the top of the entire NHL without a single regular time loss with a balance of 8–3–1–0, goals 50–24. It seems as if the team has now continued directly at its final level from last season. Last night, Vegas beat this season’s championship favorite Colorado 7-0 at home.
If Anaheim’s Dostal is to be singled out, Vegas’ goalkeepers have performed even more brilliantly since the beginning of the season. Last spring’s sensation Adin Hill is sixth in save percentage in goalkeeper statistics (93.8%) and Logan Thompson eighth (93.2%). The average goals conceded are 2.80 for Dostal, 2.16 for Thompson and 1.81 for Hill.
In next night’s game, Anaheim has a significant rest advantage, as its previous game was on Thursday (beat Arizona 4-3 in overtime at home). Vegas may have a bit of a playoff flavor in this game, as its next game isn’t until Wednesday at home against conference-leading Los Angeles. The real surprise for Vegas is found in its goals-to-go ratio compared to its realized goals. Taking into account all the game situations, the team is at zero in the expected ratio (49%), although the difference in the goals realized in the actual playing time is plus 23 goals!
Even though Vegas was above all an efficient finisher and played a good goaltending game in last spring’s playoffs, it is very likely that its pace will fade at some point in the regular season. The same can of course be predicted for Anaheim as well.
In terms of power relations, Vegas is a couple of classes tougher than Anaheim. A lot in this match will be decided by what attitude Vegas will have in the match. In terms of betting, Veikkaus offers the highest odds on the market for Anaheim’s successes. People who believe in the market can take a position in favor of Anaheim here, but I don’t do that myself. In terms of the number of goals, Vegas has finished so much more than expected, that if there is an evening of a little weaker concentration, then maybe it will show in the goals scored and I raise the 1.88 odds offered for under 6.0 goals in the actual game time as the best bet for the match. Vegas is a good under team for possible letdown games because the level of the second goalkeeper is also good enough. Anaheim–Vegas starts at 2:00.
The best betting tip of the day
Sunday’s best bet search can be found in the Premier League match between Nottingham and Aston Villa. Since the beginning of the season, Aston Villa has been the team with the most goals in the Premier League after Brighton. In its ten matches, a total of 40 goals have been scored. Although the majority of the goals in Villa’s matches have been scored in the team’s home matches (as many as 24 goals in five matches), there has been enough excitement in the team’s matches even on away grounds. In addition to the 16 goals scored, the number of goals expected has also been created in the five away matches to the amount of 16 goals.
In itself, Nottingham has not been as generous as Villa, but it is worth noting about its home games that in all four matches played at the City Ground, both teams have always been able to score at least one goal. The average number of goals in Nottingham’s home matches is 2.75 goals per game. Especially in terms of defensive play, the statistics do not speak very well for Nottingham, as its home opponents so far have been Sheffield United, Burnley, Brentford and Luton. With Villa attacking strongly, it is easy to foresee the rush to the defensive end for Nottingham. Veikkaus offers a match with over 2.5 goals, at least at the time of drafting the tip, the highest odds of 1.84 on the market. That is a meager over-multiplier, estimated at 55%. Nottingham-Aston Villa kicks off at 4:00 p.m.
Games of the day: –
The total balance of the day’s games for the year: 114/203/98%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.