The explosion of the Sanfermines, that have started this Wednesday in Pamplona, condense the summer that will be experienced in cities and towns throughout Spain: a cocktail of parties without restrictions and infections by covid-19, because the pandemic has not gone away. After two years canceled due to the virus, joy, euphoria and uncontrolled partying have undisguisedly taken over the streets of the Navarran capital today. In addition, the chupinazo of this 2022 has been carried out by former soccer player Juan Carlos Unzué, who has dedicated it to all the sanitary who cared for the population during the pandemic and, especially, for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (THE A), illness that he suffers from.
It is possible that those same toilets see today’s images in Pamplona with a certain concern, when facing a summer season in which, as happens every year for the holidays, there is even more shortage of doctors and nurses. “The Sanfermines begin, but the one who is going to give the chupinazo is me,” the parodic account wrote in a tweet Influenza Coronavirus, also known as The Twitter Coronavirus. And there will be more: after this Navarre festivity, the Carmen festivities (July 16th), that of the Assumption (August 15) and so many other major and neighborhood festivals everywhere in Spain.
But the haters epidemiological indicators Still there. In just one month, from the week that goes from June 3 to July 5 (last day on which the Ministry of Health offered data), some such as the incidence, those hospitalized or admissions to ICUs due to covid-19 have doubled throughout Spain. In those older than 60 years, the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days has gone from 617 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 1,135. And that despite the fact that there are many infections that are not being counted.
Incidence, hospitalizations and ICUs have doubled in the last month
Yes, there are two indicators that do not give rise to misunderstandings: the hospitalizations (there are 11,585 patients with coronavirus throughout Spain, compared to 6,481 at the beginning of June) and the ucis (there are 503 serious patients, compared to 325 a month ago). Transmission of the virus continues although we do not know how to measure exactly at what speed: to what extent can it affect to the pandemic the social interaction of Sanfermines or other festivities, such as Carmen (July 16)?
More infections?
Doctors assume that transmission will increase, but not everyone thinks things will go haywire because of the holidays. he says so Jose Jonay Ojeda one of the spokespersons for the Spanish Society of Public Health and Health Administration (Sespas), who called “relativize” the impact of these events, Mainly because there have been no restrictions in Spain for months.
“There will be more infections, but it will probably not be the same as before because there is already, at the base, an important level,” says an epidemiologist
“In acute phase of the pandemic, which formally ended in March when the control strategy changed, the impact of these events was more relevant because we had not recovered normality of our interactions,” Ojeda reasons. “There will be an impact [de los Sanfermines y otras festividades]but it’s probably not the same as before because There is already, as a base, a significant level of transmissions,” Add.
That is to say: a year ago the restrictions (more or less severe depending on the season) contained the virus and prevented it from running amok. When these were lifted, an increase in the epidemiological curve was observed. But these measures have not existed for months and, therefore, some epidemiologists expect infections to increase this summer but doubt that this increase will be as marked as a year ago, when going from zero to 100.
In addition, Ojeda also points out another factor that can contribute to the increase in infections: the decrease in immunity caused by the vaccine. Even so, he specifies that the infections that are taking place “will also generate immunity.” “That’s why I say that probably this summer all the massive social activities will have a lesser impact than other years. There will be infections, yes, but long-standing community transmission is likely to buffer them,” this epidemiologist thinks.
The “greatest risk” is essentially vulnerable people, doctors warn
The doctor of the Infectious Diseases Service of the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) Robert Guerri believes that, in this scenario of free circulation of the virus, the “greatest risk” is essentially run by the vulnerable people. And that is why he calls for each citizen to “evaluate” what their personal situation. “Will infections go up? Sure, because the virus is circulating and there will be more people together. But that it does not have to mean more hospitalizations. It will depend on whether these infected people will, in turn, infect vulnerable. What you have to do is prepare for what’s coming in the fall,” says Güerri.
The next fall
Like every year since the pandemic began, there is great concern the arrival of the cold Infections are skyrocketing now, at a time when citizens are living away from home. “In the fall, when covid-19 gathers with the flu, it can be complicated”, advances the doctor from the Hospital del Mar. According to him, this seventh wave is showing that the vaccine loses efficacy in the elderly (in its mild forms). He believes that Spain will begin to put the fourth doses in September, before autumn arrives, to be prepared for a season in which it is unknown which variant will circulate.
care load
Although the hospital pressure has grown in the last (above all, in primary care: Catalonia has re-enabled La Meva Salut today to ask for sick leave due to covid symptoms, in order to prevent people from going to the CAP), the impression of the toilets “since the trench” is that the territory is “in a plateau phase”. “The data have not skyrocketed, but they are not decreasing either,” says Dr. Güerri.
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Last year, around this time, the Hospital del Mar had four floors occupied with covid-19 patients. right now there is two, in which there are patients admitted for covid-19 and others who are admitted for another reason and who were diagnosed with the virus in the routine hospital entry test.
Ojeda confirms that, for now, the increase in infections has not translated into a significant increase in the burden of care from hospitals. But this is, she says, what to look out for in the coming weeks. “This will be the parameter when taking public health measures” warns.