The lynx can taste a rare treat today.
Tampere Ilves is chasing first place in the regular season and home advantage in the playoffs. Mika Kylmäniemi/AOP
The most interesting game of the day
Tappara’s loss in regular time to KalPa in the regular season of the League strongly tipped the scales in Ilves’ direction. In the best possible scenario for Ilves, they can already celebrate the victory of the regular season today – even though they and Tappara still have a mutual encounter on Friday.
In the league, the order of the regular season is determined based on the number of three-point wins in ties. If Ilves wins today against Kärpät in regular time and Tappara at the same time loses to Sport in regular time, then Ilves escapes from Tappara and is already unreachable.
Ilves would rise to 113 points with its regular time win, and if Tappara doesn’t get a point from Vaasa today, its maximum score will be the same 113 points even with Derby’s possible regular time win. Ilves currently has 32 three-point wins and Tappara has 31.
Tappara’s Regular Series ends with Friday’s local game, while Ilves still has a home game against HPK on Saturday. The win in the regular season would be Ilves’ first in 35 years.
Tonight’s Kärpät–Ilves match is also extremely important for Kärpi, as the team is playing for access to the top six and a direct place in the quarterfinals. The battle for places 5, 6 and 7 is the tightest possible, as the fifth-placed Pelicans have 95 points, the sixth-placed Kärpi has 95 points and the seventh-placed HIFK has 94 points. Kärpät has played more matches than Pelicans and HIFK.
Ilves’ wins from previous meetings in the season are 2–1. The matches between Kärppi and Ilves this season have been characterized by few goals, as only 10 goals have been scored in three meetings so far (3.33 per game).
Nothing in the starting points of the match today points in the direction of more goals than before. In terms of the number of goals in betting, the 1.88 offered for under 4.5 goals is almost certainly a better bet than the over. Although Ilves is currently a much more compact and more unified looking package than Kärppi, the best offer in terms of winning bets is still the promised 2.92 for Kärppi’s actual game time win.
In what I assume will be a low-scoring match, the importance of chance and one goal is highlighted. This evens out the balance of power a little. In addition, Kärpi has the potential to challenge practically any team in the League at its best. Both teams enter the match with strong crews. Kärpi lacks namesakes Ville Leskinen and Julius Junttila. However, at least I don’t count these shortcomings as a minus for the team. Kärpät–Ilves starts at 18:30.
The best betting tip of the day
The best long bet search for Wednesday can be found in the special bets for the Champions League match between Bayern Munich and PSG. In terms of the actual match odds, the game has been set up to have enough goals for PSG’s chasing position and Kylian Mbappe’s for being involved. However, the livening effect of the settings on the match has been forgotten in the case of corner kicks.
The nature of Parivaljako’s opening match changed three weeks ago in Paris with a one-off shot after Kylian Mbappe came on the field a little less than an hour into the game. Before this, Bayern took the match to their heart’s content. After Mbappe brought running and attacking power to PSG’s play, the ripples of the match and the goal situations increased radically.
Today, Mbappe is already in the opener and I believe that PSG will be much more competitive away from home than in the opening match and the nature of the match will be fast-paced from the start. The main goal line has been dragged down to no less than 3.25 goals, and the 1.76 offered for crossing it is not attractive, even though the match may rush to an over no matter what.
Instead, the market’s highest 2.08 multiplier offered from more than 9.5 corners is even playable with the same idea of a fast-paced match. Bayern Munich–PSG starts at 22:00.
Among the early bets, the most noteworthy is the -0.25 handicap for Middlesbrough in the Championship against 1.97 Swansea on Saturday. This is clearly the highest offer on the market, which may be subject to significant downward pressure before the game day.
Games of the day: Bayern Munich–PSG, angles over 9.5 (coefficient 2.08).
The total balance of the day’s games for the year: 25/41/104%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.