Thousands of faces and names on a long wall. Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) visited an impressive memorial in Kiev on Wednesday, visibly emotional, for all soldiers who died in eastern Ukraine in recent years in the fight against pro-Russian rebels. He kept quiet about the deaths of 17 July 2014: on that day, 298 air passengers, including 196 Dutch, were killed when MH17 was shot down with a Russian Book missile. A fateful event that made the Netherlands look at the world differently.
Also read this article from 2016: Fatal Book rocket came hissing over the trees
It became clear again in Kiev that Dutch foreign policy is in flux. During a working visit, Rutte promised Ukraine help in repelling cyber attacks. Defensive weapons may also be supplied, now that more than a hundred thousand Russian soldiers are at the border. It may seem like a small step, but for a country with a long tradition of neutrality and geopolitical pragmatism, it is not. Rutte spoke sharp words to Russia: any invasion of Ukraine, no matter how small, will be answered with heavy sanctions. It’s stupid to laugh about that. Rutte stood there not only as prime minister of the Netherlands, but also as leader of an EU country. From a military-strategic point of view, the EU is not doing enough, but economically it is a superpower that Russian President Putin finds difficult to ignore. The size of its economy is just as large as that of the Benelux. The West is popular among Russian oligarchs. Their children can go to good universities and their assets, unlike in Russia itself, are protected by a functioning rule of law.
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The EU does not yet look very united. Poland and Lithuania demand decisiveness, they feel the hot breath of Russia. Germany prefers to avoid quarrels, because of the burden of the past, but also because of the strong dependence on Russian gas (Nord Stream). Hungary sits on Putin’s lap. France is annoyed by the Anglo-Saxon war rhetoric. For an island (the UK) and a country far away (US) it is easier to shout with impunity. Enough discussion, in short, and all the more reason for the Netherlands to get involved in this. It is often pretended that the Netherlands is a small country that nobody listens to. Wrongly: geographically it is small, in terms of population it is medium-sized and economically it is even a major player. It is to be welcomed that the Netherlands is also behaving accordingly.
Admittedly: the promises about aid are not very concrete, but the analysis made by the cabinet makes sense. The Netherlands does not want an escalation, omit the drum roll; at the same time, it also does not want to return to the time when spheres of influence were divided like pie slices. EU countries cannot do without American support, that became painfully clear in Afghanistan last year. The militarily stronger British are out of the EU and in on themselves, with a prime minister cornered by puberty lockdown parties. The current US president is much better disposed towards the EU and NATO than the previous one, but a comeback from Donald Trump is not out of the question. That would have huge implications for how EU security is organised. “I can’t remember when the bell for Europe has sounded as loud as now,” said former NATO boss Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. Europe needs to get its own deterrence in order. According to the coalition agreement, the armed forces will receive an additional 3 billion euros per year on a structural basis. Much will be spent on overdue maintenance, nevertheless it is another sign that the Netherlands wants to make a serious contribution to European security. The question is whether the Netherlands is ready for such a larger role: due to the workload and a lack of knowledge about the EU, there is little room for in-depth, strategic discussions at ministries, according to a report this week.
Cynicism pays off, Putin knows. The whole world is talking to him again. Due to the tensions, he has gained a foothold with troops in EU neighboring Belarus. They don’t go away. Ukraine’s economy will be hit hard by the uncertainty. It is ingenious how the president has for years been able to explain his own aggression towards neighboring countries as ‘victimization’, because NATO or the EU would make too large a claim on ‘his’ backyard. No one is forcing countries to join. They want that of their own free will and precisely because Russia offers no perspective, but submission. Moreover, it is an open secret within NATO that Ukraine is not coming soon. That the door is officially kept open after all seems hypocritical, but it is understandable: officially closing the door means that NATO goes along with blunt, old-fashioned power politics. In such a situation, Putin’s cynicism wins – and that would be a real defeat.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC Handelsblad on 5 February 2022
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 5, 2022