After more than six years with the Euribor in negative values (specifically since January 2016, when the month ended with 0.042%), this indicator has once again exceeded zero this April 2022 and has risen 101.03% in one year: from -0.484 registered in the same month of 2021 to the current 0.005%, in the absence of data for this Friday, which the Bank of Spain will publish next week. In addition, in just one month it has increased 0.242 points, after -0.237% in February 2022.
The cause of this huge rise is in the positive daily data recorded by the reference index for variable mortgages this month, which reached 0.134% on Monday 25, the highest percentage since October 15, 2015, when reached the same figure. “This April we have seen, for the first time in six years, a positive monthly mean of the Euribor, which confirms its change in trend. Since the war began in Ukraine, more than 60 days ago, we have seen very volatile movements & rdquor ;, analyzes Simone Colombelli, director of Mortgages at iAhorro.
What are the consequences of this rise?
who has a contract variable mortgage of 150,000 euros at 30 years with Euribor + differential of 0.99%, and you have to do the annual review of it this April, you will see how the amount you will pay for your mortgage over the next twelve months will increase by 32 euros per month or, what is same, 384 euros per year: you will pay 481.18 euros for the previous 449.18 euros.
In the event that the mortgage loan is 300,000 euros over 30 years, also with a differential of Euribor + 0.99%, as of this month the monthly fee will be 962.05 euros for the 898.36 you paid in April 2021. In this case, the increase would be 63.66 euros per month and 763.92 euros per year.
Regarding fixed mortgages, entities have already made several adjustments to the rise of their interest rates. However, as Colombelli assures, “until all banks raise fixed rates uniformly, a real change will not be noticed, and there are some entities that do not plan to do so”. “In recent weeks, especially in March, there have been adjustments and possibly there will be some more, but if the Euribor does not rise much more, the next changes will not be decisive in the short term. It could only happen if the bank wants to make a commercial strategy, that is, if it bets on another product to position itself internally or to differentiate itself from other entities & rdquor ;, clarifies the director of mortgages at iAhorro.
What forecast is there for the Euribor for the coming months?
The spokesman for the mortgage comparator, looking back, analyzes that “historically, in the Euribor there has never been a difference of more than half a point between the highest and lowest data of the year; not even in 2020. And if we go back more years, the trend does not change & rdquor ;, for this reason, he adds that “this year we have already seen a difference of almost 0.5 percentage points between the data for January and that of this April, Y it is very difficult to reach 0.5% at the end of the year (as some experts predict) when a rise of one point would be reached in the whole of the exercise & rdquor ;.
Besides, Simone Colombelli He assures that something similar to what happened with the coronavirus is happening: “We have already experienced the most abrupt changes in the Euribor and we could be reaching a certain stability. From now on it is likely that we will see more sustained, more stable movements & rdquor ;.
That yes, the director of Mortgages of iAhorro is cautious and clarifies that this advance depends largely on the decisions that the European Central Bank (ECB). For now, its president Christine Lagarde has postponed at least until the third quarter of the year the adjustment to the rise in interest rates by the entity, despite the fact that inflation this month is around 8.4%, a figure that is still very high, although lower than that of March.