A decision will be made in Brussels next week whether Ukraine will be granted the status of candidate member of the European Union. Then it will become clear whether the 27 EU Member States are following the positive advice of the European Commission. The speed and goodwill for Ukraine (Germany, France and Italy already support Ukraine’s EU ambitions) are in stark contrast to the prolonged dawdling about the Western Balkan countries’ attempts to become part of the European family.
Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia – which even changed the country name to accommodate EU member Greece – have been candidate members of the EU for many years. There is no agreement on the status of Kosovo.
Are the six Balkan countries at risk of falling victim to Ukraine’s preferential treatment? Because the chance that both Ukraine and the Balkan countries will join the EU in the foreseeable future does not seem realistic. And as if that were not enough, the former Soviet states of Moldova and Georgia have also set their sights on EU membership. They too, like war-torn Ukraine, are feeling the urge to expand from Moscow.
How credible is the European Union if it opens the door generously to Ukraine and not to the Western Balkans?
Hylke Dijkstra, associate professor of political science and research director of European Studies at Maastricht University:
‘If a European country has the will to join our union and is serious about things like democracy, human rights, a market economy and European rules, then we should be positive about it. After all, we also benefit from stability and allies on the borders of our union. For a country like Ukraine, this process will not be easy and the outcome is also very uncertain.
“But it is important to offer Ukraine a straw now, symbolic as it may be, and to indicate that Ukraine’s future lies in Europe. As the EU, we cannot now close the door and violate the rules of the game from our own treaties.
“There is no question of Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia coming forward. Every country has a similar trajectory and they all have to do their very best. Several Balkan countries do not do this, such as Serbia with a very ambiguous political attitude towards Russia.’
Antoaneta Dimitrova, Professor of Comparative Governance at Leiden University and who has been involved in research for years into the problem of EU enlargement:
‘Ukraine is not given preference and is not allowed to push ahead in the queue. There is no queue or counter where it is your turn earlier at the EU. The candidate status marks the beginning of years of negotiations with the EU on the implementation of all European laws and on reforms. How long this takes is different for each country. For example, Finland and Sweden were once ready for EU membership in three years, while Bulgaria and Romania took more than ten years.
“Whether Ukraine can ever actually join the EU is purely dependent on its own progress, and progress in this process simply means reform. That is now lacking in many Balkan countries. For example, Serbia and Montenegro are not making progress in their democratic processes. In fact, there is actually a deterioration of, for example, the freedoms of the media. Moreover, you keep seeing improper links between governments and businessmen.
“Research shows that people in these countries are very aware that the slowness of negotiations with the EU is solely due to the lack of reforms by their own governments. Is there nevertheless a danger that disappointed Serbs or Montenegrins will turn to Russia or China? A friendship with Russia nowadays comes with high costs and economic investments from China do not always work out well. Think of the highway paid for with borrowed Chinese money and still unfinished, which has brought Montenegro to the brink of bankruptcy.’
Jan Marinus Wiersma, associate fellow at the Clingendael Institute and formerly a member of the European Parliament for fifteen years:
“Normally, Ukraine would not qualify for candidate status. Should this be decided, the country still has a long way to go towards genuine negotiations. They know all about that in the Western Balkans. In 2003, these countries were offered membership. In 2022, only one, Croatia, passed the exam.
‘Lack commitment van Brussel is partly to blame for this. The EU does not dare to offend authoritarians and fails to crack down on local, partly corrupt political and business elites. They provide relative stability, something Brussels considers more important than the quality of democracy. Further fragmentation of attention will be at the expense of the western Balkans, you hear there.
“Should the EU decide to appoint new candidate members, it would send a strong signal to the Western Balkans: a greater direct involvement of the EU in rule of law reforms and, in anticipation of membership, allow partial integration in certain cases, such as inclusion in (parts of) the internal market of the EU. Giving the region the feeling that it is being abandoned is risky, partly in view of the past.’
Geert Luteijn, political science lecturer at VU University Amsterdam and Balkan expert:
“The European Union must not cross the Western Balkans with a symbolic act towards Ukraine. Due to vetoes by the Netherlands, among others, accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania have still not started. These countries show their willingness for far-reaching reforms, but to their frustration they are only candidate members. Let this be the status they seem to soon be sharing with Ukraine.
“The credibility of the EU is under pressure. After Croatia’s accession in 2013, the process of integrating small states in Southeastern Europe into the Union has stagnated. It is the wrong message from the EU Member States if they allow the Ukraine for political reasons without doing anything about the stagnating process in the Western Balkans.’