The Republican Party’s refusal to approve a new shipment of military aid to Ukraine for 61,000 million dollars and the vote against the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbánso that the European Union includes in the budget an item of financial aid to the kyiv Government of 50 billion eurosallowed the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, boastfully presenting himself before the international press on Thursday as someone who controls the situation. Although the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyensaid this Friday that the Europeans will find the formula to overcome the Hungarian veto and the White House believes that there are shortcuts to neutralize the Republican opposition, the truth is that There are wavering voices among Volodymyr Zelensky’s main allies due to the very high cost of the war, the failed spring and summer counteroffensive and the stagnation of the fronts.
It is true that Russia has not recorded any significant progress since the first phases of the invasion. It is also true that the Ukrainian offensives of 2023 have also failed to achieve their objectives. AND Putin seems ready to run a long-distance race in the confidence that only he will be willing to continue sacrificing human and material resources indefinitely. Not even the EU’s decision to enter into negotiations for the accession of Ukraine damages the image built by the Russian president for the moment: the process that is now beginning will last for years and the war makes it impossible for Ukraine to undertake the necessary reforms – structural and legislative, in the functioning of institutions and in the economy – as long as the weapons do not fall silent. The agreement to open talks, adopted on Thursday in the absence of Hungary, is a very important starting point and a sign of European commitment to Ukraine, but it is not a factor in changing the fate of the war.
Despite some signs of fatigue due to the duration of the crisis, the West must maintain the effort that prevented Ukraine from succumbing to the Russian onslaught. Nor is it to achieve a situation of balance that prevents the invader from winning and perhaps forces him to compromise with a ceasefire. The resilience of the Russian economy has been greater than expected in principle to face the sanctions, the imbalances in oil and gas exports, which the Kremlin has managed to partially minimize, and the blockade of financial assets. But it is unknown what the real impact on the GDP of this limiting environment is beyond the official figures provided by Moscow, of dubious solvency; There is no way to predict the impact of stronger measures, such as the seizure of Russian funds abroad, or when the war will become too much of a burden.
Meanwhile, looking inward, European partners should perhaps begin to consider to what extent the functioning of the EU should continue to be conditioned by a country with a modest demographic and economic weight, which joined in 2004 and which has benefited in all kinds of aid. The rule of unanimity weakens the Twenty-Seven every time Orbán behaves more like an ally of Putin than a loyal partner.